Yes, data indicates that fewer people are receiving tax refunds and more taxpayers are owing money to the IRS in recent filing seasons. This trend is driven by changes in income, such as increased gig work, and adjustments in tax withholding. Nearly 23% of those who owe money expect to take on debt to pay their tax bill.
Under-Withholding from Your Paychecks
You claimed too many allowances on your W-4. You have multiple jobs, and each employer withholds too little. You didn't update your W-4 after marriage, divorce, or new dependents.
Common reasons for owing taxes include insufficient withholding, extra income, self-employment tax, life changes, and tax code changes.
Marginal tax rate brackets changed
Whether your income went north or south—or even stayed the same—the rate at which your income is taxed could have changed when income ranges for the 7 federal tax brackets were adjusted for tax year 2025. Across the board, the brackets increased by 2.8% from 2024 because of inflation.
Even though the IRS didn't update federal withholding tables this year after the Working Families Tax Cut Act passed, your refund could still be smaller if: You updated your Form W-4 after a raise, new job, or other big life change. Your employer withheld taxes more accurately than in prior years.
Refunds lower because of tax refund offsets
If your tax refund is lower than you calculated, it may be due to a tax refund offset for an unpaid debt such as child support. Get answers to frequently asked questions about the Treasury Offset Program (TOP), including: Why was my tax refund reduced?
If your income level fluctuates from year to year, you may find yourself paying more than you expect at tax time. This is because when your income increases, you may be pushed into a higher tax bracket, resulting in higher tax rates for higher income levels.
Having enough tax withheld or making quarterly estimated tax payments during the year can help you avoid problems at tax time. The IRS urges you to check your options to avoid penalties for underpayment of estimated tax.
When you ignore or fail to pay a tax debt, the government can place a legal claim against your property. This is called a federal tax lien. The IRS usually only issues tax liens if you owe over $10,000, and it almost always happens when you owe $20,000 or more.
One of the main culprits behind owing taxes is insufficient tax withholding. This happens when your employer doesn't take enough taxes out of your paycheque throughout the year. It's more likely to happen if you have multiple jobs, switch jobs, or your income changes unexpectedly.
Common reasons include underpaying quarterly taxes if you're self-employed or not updating your withholding as a W-2 employee. You may also owe if you collected unemployment benefits, which are taxable.
To avoid the 22% tax bracket (or any higher bracket), focus on reducing your taxable income through strategies like maxing out 401(k)s and HSAs, deferring bonuses, tax-loss harvesting, smart charitable giving, and strategic asset location, understanding that higher rates only apply to income within that bracket, not your entire income.
If you owe taxes after filing your return, it's likely because you paid less tax during the year than you owed for your income level. A common reason people owe taxes is because not enough income tax was withheld from each paycheck.
But how people define “upper class” differs. Some say you'd need to be making twice the median income, or around $167,460. Even more elite are those who find themselves in the top 5 percent of earners. In the U.S., you'd need to be making about $336,000 to find yourself in the top 5 percent, according to Census data.
If you claimed 0 and still owe taxes, chances are you added “married” to your W4 form. When you claim 0 in allowances, it seems as if you are the only one who earns and that your spouse does not. Then, when both of you earn, and the amount reaches the 25% tax bracket, the amount of tax sent is not enough.
Each year, the IRS adjusts more than 60 tax provisions to keep income tax brackets, deductions and other inputs in line with the cost of living. For the 2025 tax year (filing returns in 2026) these adjustments, including federal income tax brackets, increased on average by about 2.8%.
It boils down to this: If you're getting a sizable refund just about every year, and you're having federal taxes held out of your pay, then you're probably having too much held out for federal taxes. So, when you get a big refund, you're just getting your own money back.
Misspelled names. Likewise, a name listed on a tax return should match the name on that person's Social Security card. Entering information inaccurately. Wages, dividends, bank interest, and other income received and that was reported on an information return should be entered carefully.
Backdoor IRAs, carried interest, and life insurance are just some of the loopholes you can use to reduce your tax bills. It's important to plan correctly and use the right loopholes, credits, and deductions for your unique situation.