In a best-case scenario, mortgage rates could fall closer to 6% at some point in 2025, but they aren't expected to dip much lower than that — and rates could also go the other direction if the economy weakens or inflation rises.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
"While I'd love to say rates will drop below 6% in 2025, I think it's a moderate probability and not a certainty," says Steven Parangi, a licensed mortgage loan originator and owner of Alpine Mortgage Services.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate that in 2024, rates will start at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
NAHB: Rates Will Average 6.36% in 2025 and 5.93% in 2026. The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
After 14 months of stagnancy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate three times in 2024, ending the year with a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest since February 2023.
You can often secure better rates with a larger down payment, but you also need to understand how much you can afford. Paying too little for your down payment might cost more over time, while paying too much may drain your savings. A lender will look at your down payment and determine which mortgage is best.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
More homes on the market in 2025 may create better opportunities for buyers. Higher inventory means fewer bidding wars, which may keep home prices more stable. Falling mortgage rates could also ease the cost of buying a home, though it may take time.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
Supply and Demand. An increase in the demand for money or credit will raise interest rates, while a decrease in the demand for credit will decrease them. Conversely, an increase in the supply of credit will reduce interest rates while a decrease in the supply of credit will increase them.
Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
Credit card rates will edge off their record highs but remain pricey. By the end of 2025, McBride predicts that the average credit card annual percentage rate (APR) will fall 0.47 percentage point from its year-end 2024 level (20.27%).
Current mortgage interest rates in California. As of Monday, January 13, 2025, current interest rates in California are 7.33% for a 30-year fixed mortgage and 6.61% for a 15-year fixed mortgage.
What happens if you lock in a mortgage rate and it goes down? If you're locked in and mortgage rates fall, you'll be stuck paying the higher rate unless your rate lock includes a float-down option. A float-down option lets you honor your locked-in rate or the current rate, whichever is lower.
The easiest and most fruitful way for homebuyers and existing homeowners to lower their mortgage rate is to compare rates among lenders, but borrowers can also be opportunistic by taking out a mortgage in January when rates tend to be at seasonal lows.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
How much down payment for a $300,000 house? The down payment needed for a $300,000 house can range from 3% to 20% of the purchase price, which means you'd need to save between $9,000 and $60,000. If you get a conventional loan, that is. You'll need $10,500, or 3.5% of the home price, with a FHA loan.
If you want to avoid mortgage insurance by putting 20% down, your down payment should be $100,000. If you plan to put 8% down (the median for first-time homebuyers) it would be $40,000. If you're a first-time homebuyer with an FHA loan and a 3% down requirement, you would need $15,000.
To purchase a $200,000 house, you need a down payment of at least $40,000 (20% of the home price) to avoid PMI on a conventional mortgage. If you're a first-time home buyer, you could save a smaller down payment of $10,000–20,000 (5–10%). But remember, that will drive up your monthly payment with PMI fees.
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023 before descending somewhat in 2024. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2025. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Strong labor market data combined with recent sticky inflation makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate anytime soon.
The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 7.50% (rate effective as of December 19, 2024).