Typically, interest rates decline in the early stages of a recession to encourage spending and borrowing.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
While the stock market is not directly related to mortgage rates, both are based on the basic movement of the economy. When things are going swimmingly, both stock prices and mortgage rates tend to rise. They both generally fall when the economy is faltering.
The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Current Forecasts and Expert Opinions
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.
Is It a Good Idea to Buy a Home During a Recession? Home prices tend to fall during recessions, both because of lower interest rates and because potential buyers feel more financial pressure. Reduced demand means that houses may stay on the market longer, giving sellers an incentive to lower their expectations.
Your mortgage payments could change drastically because of a collapsing dollar, especially if you have an adjustable rate. Those interest rates would follow the trend of the economy itself, so if the Fed raises interest rates, mortgage rates will also climb. This would lead to volatility in your mortgage payments.
While it's a bummer of an answer, experts say it's unlikely consumers will see house prices drop meaningfully during 2024. Home prices will drop when a mixture of economic factors favorably collide — primarily lower interest rates and increased housing supply.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Credit card rates will edge off their record highs but remain pricey. By the end of 2025, McBride predicts that the average credit card annual percentage rate (APR) will fall 0.47 percentage point from its year-end 2024 level (20.27%).
Some economists are projecting three rate cuts this year, including Goldman Sachs, whose economists expect rates to end 2025 in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, down from its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Recessions mean there is more risk for lenders who approve loans. A buyer could close on a house, lose their job, and then miss payments on their mortgage. The bank could eventually foreclose on the property, causing the institution to lose money. You may find that it is harder to buy a house during a recession.
Mortgage rates are likely to go down in 2025 as long as inflation continues to slow. If inflation remains sticky, rates might not drop as much.
Southern California home prices close out 2008 down 35% The long, sharp slide in Southern California home values is all but eliminating demand for new houses.
Because no one ever knows for sure they're in a recession when they're in it, the market reaction to a recession tends to last far beyond the event itself. So mortgage rates will be lower in the aftermath of the recession, but not necessarily during one.
What Are the Biggest Risks to Avoid During a Recession? Many types of financial risks are heightened in a recession. This means that you're better off avoiding some risks that you might take in better economic times—such as co-signing a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt.
The Bottom Line
When your mortgage lender goes bankrupt, your loan will typically be sold to another lender or investor (if it hasn't already been). Your obligations, and the new lender's, will remain the same as before. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
If your credit score is strong, your employment is stable and you have enough savings to cover a down payment and closing costs, buying now might still be a smart move. But if your personal finances are not ideal at the moment, or if home values in your area are on the decline, it might be better to wait.
Stocks and bonds have relatively low transaction costs, allow you to diversify more easily and leave your cash more liquid than real estate (although the stock market is typically more volatile than the housing market). Meanwhile, real estate is a hedge against inflation and has tax advantages.
For example, the 2008 recession saw a 30-year mortgage peak of 6.63%. The current 30-year rate, as of this writing, is at 5.30% but we'll see how recession fears impact this.
However, without a major downturn or global catastrophe, it's highly unlikely that mortgage rates will drop to their 2020-21 levels. In fact, many economists and housing market experts hope they don't. In the long term, mortgage rates may stabilize between 5.5% and 6%, which is a historically normal range.
There is technically no limit to how many times you can refinance your home. If you meet the lender's qualifications and it makes financial sense for your situation, you can refinance as often as you wish. However, just because you have the option to refinance multiple times doesn't mean it's always a wise choice.
Fannie Mae's chief economist says, “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple of months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings.” They are putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in 2026.