In our 2025 mortgage forecast, experts outlined a rough range between 5% and 7% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage. Most housing market forecasts predict rates landing around 6.4% at the end of the year.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
Current Forecasts and Expert Opinions
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon.
Expert Projections of Interest Rates in the Next Few Years
According to the St. Louis Fed, interest rates in the coming years are expected to be: 2025: 3.4% 2026: 2.9%
and then projects that mortgage interest rates – in particular the 30-year fixed rate, which is closely tied to the federal funds rate and the 10-year Treasury note yield – will remain elevated, and only decline 0.2 percent from 6.5 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2027.
'Goldman Sachs is being way too optimistic'
The Times poll found that 15% of 51 economists predict the base rate to fall to 3.5%, and three respondents foresee 3.25% by Q4 2025.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
The lowest average mortgage rates on record came about when the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. As a result, the weekly average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 2.65%, while the average 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage sunk to 2.10%.
Ben Eisen: It's the seller basically transferring their own mortgage to the buyer, and when they do that, the buyer keeps the rate that the seller had, so if it was 3% or 2.5%, they keep that.
“From an affordability perspective, we think 2025 will look a lot like 2024, with mortgage rates above 6 percent, home price growth easing from recent highs but staying positive, and supply remaining below pre-pandemic levels,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Average personal loan rates started at 11.93% in 2024. Rates were relatively unchanged for most of 2024, ending the year at 12.29%. Personal loan rates may be headed lower in 2025, but you'll need good credit to snag the best rates.
CD rates have been falling as the Fed cuts the federal funds rate. Further rate cuts are expected in 2025, although the current outlook is less dramatic than originally predicted. CD rates are expected to decline in 2025, but some institutions will still offer above-average CD rates.
The Fed last cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points on Dec. 18, 2024, taking the target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. The CME Group forecasts a 97.3% likelihood it will keep to that range after the January gathering. The odds of another 25-basis point cut, to between 4.0% and 4.25% are only 2.7%.
The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 7.50% (rate effective as of December 19, 2024).
2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever
Rates plummeted in 2020 and 2021 in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. By July 2020, the 30-year fixed rate fell below 3% for the first time. And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021. The average mortgage rate for that year was 2.96%.
January is the most wonderful mortgage time of the year
For borrowers looking to get the best rates, January offers the most competitive pricing with lenders offering a nearly 20 bps discount compared to the rates offered in June through October.
The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.42 percent from 1971 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC in 2023 that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
Fannie Mae's chief economist says, “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple of months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings.” They are putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in 2026.
Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second term, however, the outlook is far less certain. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now expected to stay elevated between 6% and 6.5% for the next two years. Just two months ago, economists thought it would fall to the 5% range by the second half of 2025.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.
Oxford Economics is predicitng that base rate will eventually fall to 2.5 per cent in 2027 where it will broadly remain throughout 2028 and 2029.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate that in 2024, rates will start at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.