U.S. consumer spending in 2025 showed resilience despite economic uncertainty, with nominal spending projected to grow by 3.7% for the year. Real consumer spending saw an acceleration to a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3 2025, driven by a 0.5% monthly increase in November 2025 to over $21 trillion.
Overall, we forecast real consumer spending to grow quickly in 2025, rising 2.6% from the previous year. Consumer spending is then expected to slow to 1.6% in 2026 as inflation, a weakening labor market, and slower stock price gains restrain growth.
The Consumer Price Index for all items rose 2.7 percent from December 2024 to December 2025. Food prices increased 3.1 percent, reflecting a 2.4-percent increase in prices for food at home and a 4.1-percent increase in prices for food away from home.
In the long-term, the United States Consumer Spending is projected to trend around 17192.00 USD Billion in 2027 and 17518.00 USD Billion in 2028, according to our econometric models.
The economy is growing at about the same pace as it did in Obama's last years, and unemployment, while lower under Trump, has continued a trend that began in 2011." Nominal wages, consumer and business confidence, and manufacturing job creation (initially) compared favorably, while government debt, trade deficits, and ...
Yes, most economic analyses suggest President Trump's tariffs are hurting the U.S. economy, increasing costs for consumers and businesses, causing layoffs, reducing investment, and creating economic uncertainty, although some sectors see limited gains while facing retaliation, leading to overall negative impacts like higher prices and reduced trade. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic industry, they act as a tax, raising prices and reducing available goods, with studies pointing to job losses in manufacturing and decreased business confidence.
Real GDP growth averaged a robust 3.4% during the first three years of the Biden presidency. The labor market was strong in 2023. The unemployment rate averaged a very low 3.6% in 2023, as it had in 2022; the last year with an average 3.5% unemployment rate was 1969.
As of late 2025, predictions for a 2025 recession were mixed, with some economists predicting significant risk due to tariffs and immigration policies, while others saw a potential slowdown but not a full recession, noting strong job growth in some areas despite mixed signals like weaker hiring and sagging consumer confidence. While some models showed a higher probability for late 2025/early 2026, the consensus pointed to continued economic uncertainty with potential for a downturn, though not a guaranteed recession, with key concerns being trade policy impacts and labor market stagnation.
We estimate that pass-through from tariffs to goods prices had a cumulative contribution of 0.7 percentage points to the all-items Consumer Price Index by September 2025, such that the annual inflation rate in the all-items CPI —which stood at 2.9 percent in August 2025 — would have been about 2.2 percent in the ...
While employment fell short of Trump's early promises last year, U.S. productivity grew by more than what many economists had predicted. Real gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to an estimate in December by the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Americans are spending selectively. That's the picture painted by this quarter's earnings season, and it's not surprising. Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level since 2022, job cuts are rising sharply, and tariffs are making shopping trips more expensive. Lower-income shoppers aren't the only ones feeling the heat.
Most economists don't expect the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2026. J.P. Morgan (JPM +1.25%) Global Research projects the likelihood of a recession this year at only 35%.
An estimated 24% of US households are living paycheck to paycheck so far in 2025, according to a Bank of America Institute analysis released this week.
Defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples often hold up better during downturns. Cash options like money markets or CDs offer stability but lower yields.
Personal Savings in the U.S.
18 percent said their saving were at least $1000 but under $10,000, while 11 percent each had $10,000 to $49,999 and $50,000 or more saved up.
Looking forward: In 2026, the U.S. Chamber predicts the economy will grow at least 2% -- which is the average of Blue Chip forecasters. The catch: If we establish the right set of policies, the economy could grow at 3% or above.
(Deflation, on the other hand, refers to the general decline of such prices.) While some inflation is healthy — typically around a 2 percent annual increase in prices — a rapid growth or decline in prices can have negative effects on the economy.