Yes, in its aftermath. Economic recessions typically bring low interest rates and create a buyer's market. As long as you're secure about your ability to cover your mortgage payments, a downturn can be the best time to buy a home, or an investment property.
If demand drops because of job losses or a recession, the supply of homes suddenly increases, or there is a major economic downturn, that could indicate home values will decline.
Buying a home this year, particularly in early 2024, might mean you're able to beat the rush, as the market could get more crowded if or when rates drop further. Waiting, however, could give you more options to choose from as supply improves, along with the potential for increased mortgage affordability.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
What Are the Biggest Risks to Avoid During a Recession? Many types of financial risks are heightened in a recession. This means that you're better off avoiding some risks that you might take in better economic times—such as co-signing a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC in 2023 that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
You might benefit from waiting a few months, says Brian Rudderow, a real estate investor at HBR Colorado. "I'm personally holding off buying until later in the year, specifically fall of 2025, because mortgage rates are expected to drop again along with home prices.
The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Mortgage rates have backed off from the highs hit in late 2023, but they're still elevated. And home prices are sky-high, with NAR's November data reflecting 17 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. Together, these factors might dissuade you from buying right now, and that's understandable.
“The demand for travel and hospitality services typically declines as consumers cut back on discretionary spending,” Sarib Rehman, CEO of Flipcost, said. “To attract customers, airlines, hotels and travel agencies often lower their prices and offer more promotions.”
A sharp decline in home values is one of the most immediate consequences of a housing market crash. For homeowners, this means that the equity they've built up over time can quickly erode. This decline can leave homeowners in a precarious financial position, particularly those who bought at the peak of the market.
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that can last months or even years. Most experts agree we aren't in a recession yet, but there's some risk that we could be headed for one in the next year. There are steps you can take to prepare emotionally and financially for a recession.
Typically, in recessions, the demand for houses declines and as a result house prices will fall.
The good news is that recessions generally haven't lasted very long. Our analysis of 11 cycles since 1950 shows that recessions have persisted between two and 18 months, with the average spanning about 10 months.
Strategic investing.
During a crisis or recession, you may want to avoid investments in companies or industries that are known to be cyclical, speculative, or high risk, such as unproven startups, hospitality services, and manufacturers, and retailers of luxury consumer goods.
Many prospective homebuyers chose to wait things out in 2023, in the hopes that 2024 would bring a more advantageous market. But with mortgage interest rates remaining relatively high and housing inventory remaining stubbornly low, it looks like the last few months of 2024 will remain a challenging time to buy a house.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
At the September 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates by 50 basis points, easing monetary policy for the first time in four years due to progress on the Fed's dual mandate. This lowers the interest rate target to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
If you purchase a home with a lower price but a higher interest rate, your down payment can be more affordable. For example, let's say you purchase a $220,000 home while interest rates are high. You can put down a 20% down payment, or $44,000, and get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 6.25% interest rate.
While it's a bummer of an answer, experts say it's unlikely consumers will see house prices drop meaningfully during 2024. Home prices will drop when a mixture of economic factors favorably collide — primarily lower interest rates and increased housing supply.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
The lowest average mortgage rates on record came about when the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. As a result, the weekly average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 2.65%, while the average 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage sunk to 2.10%.
Ben Eisen: It's the seller basically transferring their own mortgage to the buyer, and when they do that, the buyer keeps the rate that the seller had, so if it was 3% or 2.5%, they keep that.