Small cap is a very risky portfolio & one shoul avoid it. Since, you already have it please exit only if it is profitable. Otherwise, keep on holding it until it becomes profitable.
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
The small-cap funds saw an average return of 25.69% from December 2023 to December 2024, while mid-cap and large-cap funds yielded returns of 26.91% and 14.97% during the same period. So far, the Sensex has gained 8.92% and the Nifty has risen 9.49% in 2024.
Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
Small-cap valuations – Attractive
We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026. That is ahead of the long run rate of 13% growth (see Exhibit 3).
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
It's typically a great time to invest in small-cap stocks when the economy is rebounding, unemployment rates are decreasing quickly, and businesses are seeing strong earnings growth.
The future outlook for mid-cap and small-cap funds is cautiously optimistic. With India's GDP expected to grow at 6.5%-7% in FY 2025-26, sectors represented in under the mid and small cap indices are poised for expansion.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
However, numerous small-cap stocks do not have the capacity to handle exceptionally large trading volumes. In other words, small-cap stocks can face liquidity constraints. Small Cap Mutual Funds also find it challenging to invest the inflows worth crores they are getting each month amid stretched valuations.
2025 outlook: Small caps offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the robust US economy. Multiple favorable trends – including onshoring and increased CAPEX – may explain why Wall Street expects to see the strongest earnings gains come from small caps in 2025.
Small-cap is not a bad thing, it is just that you should have the time-frame. If you're investing for any 10 year, small-cap will beat all other kinds of funds hands down, but if you are coming with a very short-term expectation, you will be very surprised in a very negative way.
There are no lock-in periods, you can exit your smallcases anytime. As a concept, however, smallcases work best when used for long-term investing.
Nifty Smallcap 100 index has fallen 4% to its lowest level since mid-June amid concerns about Q3FY25 performance. Disappointing earnings results have led to increased selling pressure, with many stocks down significantly from their 1-year highs and foreign investors pulling out funds.
In July 2024, U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks after lagging for the first half of the year, driven by a cooler inflation report and improved market sentiment.
Hence, you may incur losses if you wish to withdraw or redeem your investment from the said small-cap mutual fund. Of course, that is not to say that gains cannot be made, but the risk always looms. That's why it always pays to stay invested in a small-cap fund for at least five to six years.
If your equity allocation is at least 5% higher than the target overall allocation, sell some small cap and invest in fixed income to reset. If you are debt-heavy, but your small cap allocation is quite high in your equity portfolio, now would be a good time to reduce it.
With small-cap mutual funds, always opt to invest for the long Term. Therefore, the minimum period for which you should be investing in small-cap mutual funds is 5-6 years. As mentioned earlier, small-cap mutual funds tend to be very volatile. For example, they may go up and down in the short Term.
Small-caps, on average, outperform large-caps by about a percentage point for the six months after a 50 basis point cut, she writes, and the majority of those periods see small-caps outperform by any degree. They average about three percentage points of superior returns over the 12 months following such a rate cut.
As of October 19, 2024, the small cap index was overvalued at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 33.39, while the 3 year long term average stands at 24.49. But experts think there are certain sectors within the small cap that are fairly valued.
Small-cap mutual funds are ideal for you if you have an investment horizon of five years and above, as small-cap stocks are volatile in the short term, and small-cap funds perform better in the long term.
However, the highly overstretched valuation of large-cap stocks, together with a few positive developments may shift market participants' preference from large to small-cap stocks. At this stage, we recommend small cap stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank that have strong growth potential for 2025.
Since the Russell 2000® began tracking the performance of small-cap stocks in 1979, the stock index has broadly matched, if not slightly exceeded, the performance of the venerable S&P 500® index of large-cap stocks (Figure 1).