Although slowed by a volatile and bearish finish, small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, finished 2024 with a second consecutive positive quarter, gaining 0.3% in 4Q24.
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
The future outlook for mid-cap and small-cap funds is cautiously optimistic. With India's GDP expected to grow at 6.5%-7% in FY 2025-26, sectors represented in under the mid and small cap indices are poised for expansion.
Small-cap funds have enjoyed a record run in the past five years. The category has fetched 31% annualised returns, compared to 16% from large-cap funds. Investors continue to bet heavily on this space. Since 2019-20, the total inflow in small-cap funds has crossed Rs.1 lakh crore.
Kotak Small Cap Fund and Axis Small Cap Fund gave 29.08% and 28.43% returns respectively in 2024. Quant Small Cap Fund offered a 28.34% return in the mentioned period. Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund gave a 26.31% return in the said period.
Small-cap funds are riskier than large-cap funds and may not be suitable for everyone. Small-cap companies are more sensitive to market changes and can experience sudden and wide price fluctuations. Small-cap companies are less popular and smaller in size, making their stock less liquid.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
The small cap segment can be extremely volatile in the short term, but they have the potential to offer very high returns over a long period. Small cap schemes are recommended only to aggressive investors with a high-risk appetite and long investment horizon, say, around seven to 10 years.
On average, small-caps have an advantage when the U.S. economy is in recovery mode. It's typically a great time to invest in small-cap stocks when the economy is rebounding, unemployment rates are decreasing quickly, and businesses are seeing strong earnings growth. Of course, small-cap stocks don't always outperform.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
Filter. Small Cap Fund : These mutual funds select stocks for investment from the small cap category, which includes all stocks except largest 250 stocks (by market capitalization). Suitable For : Investors who are looking to invest money for at least 3-4 years and looking for very high returns.
Several factors have contributed to small-cap underperformance, including (1) a decline in the average quality of companies included in small-cap indexes, (2) the greater rate sensitivity of small-cap stocks during a period of tighter monetary policy, and (3) muted M&A activity, which otherwise tends to benefit small- ...
Rebound Potential: The initiation of rate cuts by central banks, signalling a move towards a more normalised interest rate environment, could reduce the performance gap between small and large cap stocks. This environment may favour small cap stocks, indicating a potential rebound.
Not only have small-cap stocks historically outperformed their larger peers, but they've done so strongly, by an annual average of more than 300 basis points (bps), and consistently, more than 69% of the time (Figure 1).
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
Since the category has high exposure to small cap stocks, the funds in it are suitable for investors with a long investment horizon. The small cap mutual fund category has given a 12.77 per cent annualised return in 1 year, 16.40 per cent in 3 years, 27.74 per cent in 5 years, and 16.64 per cent in 10 years.
Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
However, numerous small-cap stocks do not have the capacity to handle exceptionally large trading volumes. In other words, small-cap stocks can face liquidity constraints. Small Cap Mutual Funds also find it challenging to invest the inflows worth crores they are getting each month amid stretched valuations.
In a recession, it's smart to preserve your capital by investing in safer assets, such as bonds, particularly government bonds, which can perform well during economic downturns.
Market experts recommend that investors hold small caps for at least 10 years to benefit and allocate 8% of the portfolio to small caps.
Relative to large-cap indices, small-cap P/E multiples look relatively low; they are currently 11% below average (see Exhibit 2). We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026.
High Returns: Small Cap mutual funds have the potential to provide significantly higher returns than mid-cap or even large-cap funds. This is due to the strong growth potential of these companies.