Monthly performance of small caps via the Russell [+] 2000 from December 2023 to November 2024, highlighting the bumpiness that has come after several strong months. In the 12 months ending November 2024, the Russell 2000 had gained 34.6% — outpacing the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100.
Based on rolling 12-month periods. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. 3. Wall Street is forecasting a bigger rebound in small-cap earnings, starting in Q4 2024 and through much of 2025.
Investing in small-cap stocks can be a good idea, especially when the economy is in recovery mode. In such periods, small-cap stocks frequently surpass larger ones owing to their greater potential for growth. However, they are also more volatile and can be riskier.
The mid-cap and small-cap segments have been standout performers in the Indian equity market in 2024. The NIFTY Midcap 150 and NIFTY Smallcap 250 indices have delivered impressive year-to-date returns of approximately 18% and 25%, respectively, as of December 2024.
Small-cap valuations – Attractive
We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026. That is ahead of the long run rate of 13% growth (see Exhibit 3).
The small-cap funds saw an average return of 25.69% from December 2023 to December 2024, while mid-cap and large-cap funds yielded returns of 26.91% and 14.97% during the same period. So far, the Sensex has gained 8.92% and the Nifty has risen 9.49% in 2024.
Small-cap is not a bad thing, it is just that you should have the time-frame. If you're investing for any 10 year, small-cap will beat all other kinds of funds hands down, but if you are coming with a very short-term expectation, you will be very surprised in a very negative way.
Nifty Smallcap 100 index has fallen 4% to its lowest level since mid-June amid concerns about Q3FY25 performance. Disappointing earnings results have led to increased selling pressure, with many stocks down significantly from their 1-year highs and foreign investors pulling out funds.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
With small-cap mutual funds, always opt to invest for the long Term. Therefore, the minimum period for which you should be investing in small-cap mutual funds is 5-6 years. As mentioned earlier, small-cap mutual funds tend to be very volatile. For example, they may go up and down in the short Term.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
2024 in review: A "Goldilocks" year for US stock returns
While 2023 was a year of frustration, as many missed the 26% rally, 2024 was one of ebullience and momentum—at least toward the end. The market set new all-time highs in January, which turned out to be a bullish omen that the market would gain momentum.
As of October 19, 2024, the small cap index was overvalued at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 33.39, while the 3 year long term average stands at 24.49. But experts think there are certain sectors within the small cap that are fairly valued.
High risk: While small-cap companies have a lot of growth potential, they have equal potential to fail. Small-cap stocks are a riskier investment than large-cap stocks. The companies usually have less access to investment capital and are more sensitive to market changes. This makes them a riskier investment.
In July 2024, U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks after lagging for the first half of the year, driven by a cooler inflation report and improved market sentiment.
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
These favorable characteristics, coupled with U.S. economic gains from reshoring, the CHIPS Act, and ongoing infrastructure investment, are poised to accelerate earnings for these smaller firms. While the small-cap premia may have taken a temporary breather, we believe the stage is set for their resurgence.
Investing in small caps during recessions has generated superior investment returns, according to our back-testing of the data to the late 1980s (see Table 1, below).
Rebound Potential: The initiation of rate cuts by central banks, signalling a move towards a more normalised interest rate environment, could reduce the performance gap between small and large cap stocks. This environment may favour small cap stocks, indicating a potential rebound.