If the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires after 2025, most Americans will face a significant federal income tax increase due to the return of higher tax rates, a halved standard deduction, and a reduced Child Tax Credit. The average taxpayer faces a 22% tax hike, while the average family of four could see a $1,700 tax increase, affecting 62% of all taxpayers.
The 2025 Federal Tax Debate
Much like the 2017 tax law, the new law favors the richest taxpayers. More than 70 percent of the net tax cuts will go to the richest fifth of Americans in 2026, only 10 percent will go to the middle fifth of Americans, and less than 1 percent will go to the poorest fifth.
Up to $12,500 of qualified overtime pay is now eligible for a tax deduction. As with the provision on tips, this deduction is due to expire in 2028 and starts to phase out at a rate of $100 per $1,000 of income over a MAGI of $150,000 for a single filer, and $300,000 for joint filers.
FACT: The bill cuts taxes and lowers rates for all Americans. While the status quo tilts in favor of the wealthy, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act delivers tax relief for middle-income Americans by doubling the standard deduction and lowering rates for those who need it most.
With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill in July of 2025, also known as the Working Families Tax Cut, energy tax credits are now set to expire after December 31, 2025.
At the end of 2025, the individual tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire all at once. Without congressional action, most taxpayers will see a notable tax increase relative to current policy in 2026.
It has now been replaced by Universal Credit or Pension Credit. If you've received a migration notice letter telling you to claim Universal Credit or Pension Credit, read our guide Universal Credit Migration Notice to learn what to do next.
Economic Impact:
Rough calculations indicate that personal saving would not rise by more than 2 percent. However, since funds spent on tax cuts cannot be saved by government in the form of debt repayment, national saving would fall, which would hurt prospects for economic growth.
When does the TCJA expire? Many of the provisions impacting individuals and families are set to expire at the end of 2025. This means that more than $4 trillion in tax increases will take effect Jan. 1, 2026, charging next year's Congress and administration with the hefty task of grappling with the tax hikes.
Trump Tax Plan Changes: Standard Deduction
The 2017 Trump tax law (TCJA) nearly doubled the standard deduction for all filers, and OBBB bumped them up. If you're a single filer or if you're married filing separately, your standard deduction for 2025 rose to $15,750 under OBBBA.
No Tax on Overtime is a provision that was included in a larger tax reform bill that passed in July 2025. It allows certain workers to deduct up to $12,500 in qualified overtime compensation from their taxable income on their federal income tax return. Joint filers can deduct up to $25,000.
The standard deduction increased for 2025 and 2026, and a new temporary “bonus” deduction for adults 65 and older begins in 2025. The child tax credit increased to $2,200 for the 2025 and 2026 tax years; retirement plan contribution limits for IRAs and 401(k)s also increased for 2026.
On the same day, a re-vote was held in the House; the bill passed with a vote of 224–201. President Donald Trump then signed the bill into law on December 22, 2017.
Highest taxed states
Nine U.S. states levy no income tax: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. Sales, property, and excise taxes can be higher in states with no income tax as a trade-off to fund important government services.
But how people define “upper class” differs. Some say you'd need to be making twice the median income, or around $167,460. Even more elite are those who find themselves in the top 5 percent of earners. In the U.S., you'd need to be making about $336,000 to find yourself in the top 5 percent, according to Census data.
Tax credit income limits vary significantly by credit (like EITC, Child Tax Credit, AOTC) and depend on filing status and family size, generally using Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) thresholds, with common examples for 2025 showing phase-outs starting around $200k for Child Tax Credit and specific MAGI caps for AOTC (e.g., $80k single/$160k joint) and EITC ($68.6k single/$61.5k MFJ for 2025). Higher income typically reduces or eliminates credits, while lower incomes may qualify for programs like the EITC or Housing Credits.
From 13 May 2024 the Administrative Earnings Threshold (AET) went up for individuals and couples. For individual claimants, the AET is £892 per assessment period. Additionally, if you're in a couple, the combined couple's AET is £1,437 per assessment period.
Universal credit has replaced tax credits for most people. But some people are still recieving tax credits, and some people can still apply for tax credits.