Investment strategists surveyed by Bankrate see the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.14 percent at the end of December 2025. That's up from the third-quarter 2024 prediction of 3.53 percent, but still slightly under 4.53 percent, the current trailing-12-month yield of the 10-year Treasury.
The December I bond composite rate is 3.11% (US Treasury). The December I Bond Fixed Rate is 1.20%. The December 2024 I Bond inflation rate is 1.90%.
The S&P 500's annual average return in 2024 was 23.31%, a little less than 2023's 26% jump. Returns may fluctuate widely yearly, but holding onto investments over time can help.
The average interest rates for 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day Treasury bills increased to 16.50 percent, 16.65 percent and 16.84 percent in April, 2024 from 16.14 percent, 16.18 percent and 16.36 percent in March 2024, respectively as shown in Chart 5.
The 4.28% composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2024 through October 2024 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 1.30% fixed rate of return with the 2.96% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Although experts optimistically predicted rates would fall close to 6% by the end of 2024, projections have changed significantly. Fannie Mae now expects average 30-year fixed mortgage rates to hold above 6.5% until early 2025.
After 14 months of stagnancy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate three times in 2024, ending the year with a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest since February 2023.
"It sets the stage for continued strength heading into 2025," Bassuk added. For 2024, the Nasdaq surged 28.6%, while the bellwether S&P 500 notched a 23.3% gain, marking the index's best two-year run since 1997-1998. The blue-chip Dow posted a 12.9% advance for the year.
The economy should expand at an upwardly revised pace of 2.7% year-over-year in 2024 (from 2.6%) and 2.0% in 2025 (from 1.7%). US real GDP growth in 2026 should settle at its potential rate of 1.8%. Inflation is expected to stabilize at the Fed's 2% target in Q4 2025, later than the original Q2 2025 estimate.
Unlike I-bonds, TIPS are marketable securities and can be resold on the secondary market before maturity. When the TIPS matures, if the principal is higher than the original amount, you get the higher amount. If the principal is equal to or lower than the original amount, you get the higher original amount.
Against this backdrop, the MPC decided to reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points, to 7.75%, with effect from 22 November 2024. The decision was unanimous.
While shorter-term bond yields have declined significantly since 2023, yields on longer-term bonds are trending higher as 2024 ends. Investors appear focused less on recent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, and more on continued solid economic data and inflation trends.
Ten-year yields could fall back to near the recent low of 3.80%. We view this as a less likely outcome for 2025 than a higher range centered around 4.5%.
We expect: Another cut to the Fed's target for short-term rates on December 18, 2024, putting its policy rate at 4.25%–4.5% for year-end. We anticipate the Fed will reduce its rate target further in 2025 to a range of 3.75%–4%.
Global growth forecasts are largely unchanged from last quarter, with the pace of economic expansion in 2024 slowing moderately in 2025. Easing inflation, resilient consumers, and a broadening of central bank rate cuts underpin our expectations for a soft landing.
MarketWatch reported that original top-down estimates for the S&P 500 in 2024 ranged from 4,200 at JPMorgan to 5,400 at Yardeni Research, with a median target of 5,000.
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The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Which bank gives the highest interest rate on FD? As of 2024, Canara Bank offers the highest interest rate of 7.25% for 444 days.
However, interest rates predictions are difficult as any further cuts depend on factors such as what happens with inflation. So predictions will have to be revised. For example, in January 2024, Capital Economics forecast that interest rates would be reduced to 4.00% by the end of 2024.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.