Fitch Ratings-Chicago/New York-10 January 2025: Fitch Ratings' overall U.S. CMBS delinquency rate climbed 22 basis points (bps) to close 2024 at 2.98%, up from 2.76% in November and 2.31% a year ago, fueled by a surge in office delinquencies and reduced resolution volume.
According to the most recent delinquency data from the Fed, the 30-day delinquency rate (or the percentage of total outstanding credit card balances currently at least 30 days overdue) dipped slightly, from 3.24% in the second quarter of 2024 to 3.23% in the third quarter.
Debt outpaced economic growth.
Debt held by the public (DHBP), the metric economists generally regard as the most meaningful measurement of debt, reached $29 trillion in 2024. That is $2 trillion more than at the end of 2023 and represents 99 percent of GDP (up from 97 percent in 2023).
WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 7, 2024) — The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.92 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers ...
Key Takeaways. We expect the U.S. leveraged loan default rate to fall to 1% by September 2025, from 1.26% in September 2024.
Third-quarter data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed a 30-day delinquency rate of 3.92% for one- to four-unit residential loans, up from 3.62% in Q3 2023 and 3.37% in Q2 2023 — which was the lowest level since 1979.
Running up $50,000 in credit card debt is not impossible. About two million Americans do it every year. Paying off that bill?
A 2024 recession is generally seen as unlikely, but metrics that economics take seriously hint that a recession could occur, perhaps in 2025.
Credit card delinquencies, as measured in the third quarter of this year, rose to their highest level since 2010, surpassing 4%, even as overall consumer debt for card, auto and student loans was about the same as last year according to the Federal Reserve Board's annual financial stability report.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the West Coast has the lowest share of mortgages more than 30 days delinquent, with Washington, Oregon, and California all reporting rates of delinquent mortgages under 1.5%.
Nearly 1 in 2 credit cardholders carry debt month to month. In November 2024, 48 percent of American credit cardholders told Bankrate they carry a credit card balance from month to month. That's compared to 50 percent who said they did in June 2024 and 49 percent who did in November 2023.
Subprime. The subprime 60-plus-day delinquency rate slightly dipped to 5.90% in August 2024, down eight basis points from 5.98% a month earlier and 13 basis points lower than in August 2023 (6.03%), but higher than in August 2019 (5.30%).
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency soared in November 2024, with the overall delinquency rate increasing 42 basis points to 6.40%.
CoreLogic: US Overall Delinquency Rate Continues to Trend Upward in 2024. The share of loans 30 or more days past due in September increased year over year.
Delinquency Rate: As of September 30, 2024, FHA's serious delinquency rate – those mortgages where the borrower is 90 or more days behind on their mortgage payment – remained consistent with pre-pandemic levels at 4.15 percent.
We expect moderating shelter inflation in 2024 as the lag in market rents pricing should catch up in the inflation readings. We forecast core PCE prices—the Fed's preferred inflation metric—to rise 2.4% in 2024, down from 3.4% in 2023.
Economist Claudia Sahm created a real-time indicator in 2019 that is used by many economists and. policymakers to identify whether the economy may be in a recession. The Sahm rule is triggered when the. three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more.
Typically, in recessions, the demand for houses declines and as a result house prices will fall. This was the case in the last recession back in 2008 when the housing bubble burst and the recession began.
In a recent NerdWallet survey, 57% of Americans said they were living paycheck to paycheck.
Here's the average debt balances by age group: Gen Z (ages 18 to 23): $9,593. Millennials (ages 24 to 39): $78,396. Gen X (ages 40 to 55): $135,841.
For only the third time in 2024, the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate. On Dec. 18, the Fed cut the rate, which influences interest on everything from car loans to credit cards, by 25 basis points. That takes it from 4.50% to 4.75% to 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest it's been since February 2023.
“Overall mortgage delinquencies increased slightly in the first quarter of 2024, but not across all three of the major loan types. Delinquencies declined for FHA loans, were relatively flat for conventional loans, and increased for VA loans,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis.
Fitch Ratings-New York-24 July 2024: Fitch Ratings has revised its U.S. leveraged loan default rate estimate for 2024 to 5.0%-5.5%, up from 3.5%-4.0%. Cash flow pressures from slowing GDP growth and high interest rates are posing challenges to highly levered issuers' liquidity positions and ability to service debt.