In comparison, Schwab forecasts annual returns of 5.7% for U.S. investment-grade bonds and 3.6% for cash equivalents. Other long-term forecasts, compiled by Morningstar, show U.S. equities returning between 4-7% on average over the next 10-15 years, with higher expectations for international stocks.
Based on total return, the average stock market return is about 13% over the past 10 years. Since 1965, the S&P 500 has provided annualized total returns of 10.2% through 2023, according to data compiled by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).
U.S. large cap equities are expected to deliver annualized returns of 6% over the next decade, while international developed market equities are projected to slightly outperform at 7.1%. This edge comes from more attractive valuations, even as U.S. equities benefit from stronger earnings growth.
Gains accumulate over time and can provide an advantage to those who invest early and let their money continue to accumulate. For example, $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 more than doubled to $286,000 in ten years, and after 30 years (ending in December 2023), grew to more than $1,800,000.
Average S&P 500 Return for the Last 20 Years
The average stock market return for the last 20 years was 9.75% (7.03% when adjusted for inflation), which is lower than the average 10% return.
$3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year. $36,000 / 6% dividend yield = $600,000. On the other hand, if you're more risk-averse and prefer a portfolio yielding 2%, you'd need to invest $1.8 million to reach the $3,000 per month target: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
Most investors would view an average annual rate of return of 10% or more as a good ROI for long-term investments in the stock market. However, keep in mind that this is an average. Some years will deliver lower returns -- perhaps even negative returns. Other years will generate significantly higher returns.
Variable Rate of Return: Financial advisors often project an average rate of return for 401(k) plans between 5 to 8% over 20 to 30 years. However, this does not guarantee such returns due to market volatility and other factors.
Our 3% annualized 10-year return forecast for the S&P 500 is below the consensus average of 6%. We collected publicly available data on the long-term capital markets assumptions of 21 asset managers and constructed a distribution of the US equity return component of these capital markets assumptions.
That depends on your risk appetite, and the ability to hold on to stocks during the difficult market conditions. But historically, a return of 12-15% per annum compounded over the long term is considered very good, as this will grow exponentially as time goes by.
S&P 500 Investment Time Machine
Imagine you put $1,000 into either fund 10 years ago. You'd be up to roughly 126.4% — or $3,282 — from VOO and 126.9% — or $3,302 — from SPY. That's not exactly wealthy, but it shows how you can more than triple your money by holding an asset with relatively low long-term risk.
Buy $4000 worth of goods at wholesale, resell them with a 150% markup. Pay your taxes. Done. Invest some of the money in tools and supplies and provide a service.
Morningstar Multi-Asset Research (MAR) (not public-facing)
MAR's outlook for non-US stocks is substantially better than its case for US stocks. While the 10-year return expectation for US stocks is just 5.6%, it's 9.6% for non-US developed-markets stocks and 11% for emerging-markets equities.
The table below shows the present value (PV) of $20,000 in 10 years for interest rates from 2% to 30%. As you will see, the future value of $20,000 over 10 years can range from $24,379.89 to $275,716.98.
A good return on investment is generally considered to be around 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, adjusted for inflation. The average return of the U.S. stock market is around 10% per year, adjusted for inflation, dating back to the late 1920s.
If you're starting from scratch, online millionaire calculators (which return a variety of results given the same inputs) estimate that you'll need to save anywhere from $13,000 to $15,500 a month and invest it wisely enough to earn an average of 10% a year.
A $100,000 salary can yield a monthly income of $8,333.33, a biweekly paycheck of $3,846.15, a weekly income of $1,923.08, and a daily income of $384.62 based on 260 working days per year.
Fixed Deposits (FDs): Safe but lower returns (7% return needs an 86 lakh investment for 50K monthly). Dividend Income: Invest in dividend-paying stocks (average 7% yield needs an 85 lakh investment for 50K monthly).
Q4 and 2024 Market Performance and the Economy
Late December saw stocks hit an air pocket as the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025, but that still left stocks posting strong performance for the year. The Morningstar US Market Index closed out 2024 up more 24%.
Invest in Dividend Stocks
Last but certainly not least, a stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income. However, at an example 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000, which is a substantial upfront investment.
Well, as per the calculations above, 8% before inflation is realistic if you are a US investor. But not if you are a Swiss investor. Let's sum it up this way: When you look at your actual portfolio performance as the years go by (=not inflation-adjusted), then 6.6%-8.4% is a realistic rate of return.