Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
Smaller company pricing power
One of the main risks to the positive outlook in 2024 is that inflation recommences its upward trajectory, necessitating further rate increases. We acknowledge that there is secular upward pressure on costs in the energy sector, for example.
Small cap mutual funds saw inflows of Rs 34,223 crore in 2024, with a 33% rise in assets under management (AUM). December had the highest inflow of Rs 4,667 crore. Despite frothy valuations, small caps delivered an average return of 26.38%, with Motilal Oswal Small Cap Fund leading at 45.47%.
Not only have small-cap stocks historically outperformed their larger peers, but they've done so strongly, by an annual average of more than 300 basis points (bps), and consistently, more than 69% of the time (Figure 1).
The recommended time frame is eight to ten years. Making these funds highly suitable for long-term investors. Small Cap Funds offer great potential to earn benchmark-beating returns. These are highly risky investments and should be considered when you can stomach the price volatility.
Nifty Smallcap 100 index has fallen 4% to its lowest level since mid-June amid concerns about Q3FY25 performance. Disappointing earnings results have led to increased selling pressure, with many stocks down significantly from their 1-year highs and foreign investors pulling out funds.
With small-cap mutual funds, always opt to invest for the long Term. Therefore, the minimum period for which you should be investing in small-cap mutual funds is 5-6 years. As mentioned earlier, small-cap mutual funds tend to be very volatile. For example, they may go up and down in the short Term.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
But analysts and investors are increasingly optimistic about small-caps' potential to outperform large-caps in the months ahead, driven by the likelihood that the U.S. won't fall into a recession and that interest rates will fall by as much as 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2025, says Sam Stovall, chief investment ...
Filter. Small Cap Fund : These mutual funds select stocks for investment from the small cap category, which includes all stocks except largest 250 stocks (by market capitalization). Suitable For : Investors who are looking to invest money for at least 3-4 years and looking for very high returns.
Small-cap is not a bad thing, it is just that you should have the time-frame. If you're investing for any 10 year, small-cap will beat all other kinds of funds hands down, but if you are coming with a very short-term expectation, you will be very surprised in a very negative way.
Inflation and small-cap performance through the decades
We found that the MSCI World Small Cap Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 0.47% per month in periods of low inflation (CPI < 2%) and by only 0.09% in periods of high inflation (CPI > 2%).
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
Suppose you are a short-term investor and start investing in small-cap mutual funds you may lose your investment amount because small-cap mutual funds are not ideal for short-term investors as they are volatile.
2025 outlook: Small caps offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the robust US economy. Multiple favorable trends – including onshoring and increased CAPEX – may explain why Wall Street expects to see the strongest earnings gains come from small caps in 2025.
If your equity allocation is at least 5% higher than the target overall allocation, sell some small cap and invest in fixed income to reset. If you are debt-heavy, but your small cap allocation is quite high in your equity portfolio, now would be a good time to reduce it.
Kotak Small Cap Fund and Axis Small Cap Fund gave 29.08% and 28.43% returns respectively in 2024. Quant Small Cap Fund offered a 28.34% return in the mentioned period. Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund gave a 26.31% return in the said period.
Monthly performance of small caps via the Russell [+] 2000 from December 2023 to November 2024, highlighting the bumpiness that has come after several strong months. In the 12 months ending November 2024, the Russell 2000 had gained 34.6% — outpacing the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100.
Relative to large-cap indices, small-cap P/E multiples look relatively low; they are currently 11% below average (see Exhibit 2). We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026.
Small-cap mutual funds are ideal for you if you have an investment horizon of five years and above, as small-cap stocks are volatile in the short term, and small-cap funds perform better in the long term.