The 1970s and 1980s
As we headed into the 80s, it's important to note that the country was in the middle of a recession, largely caused by the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The second oil shock caused skyrocketing inflation. The cost of goods and services rose, so fittingly, mortgage rates did too.
The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.42 percent from 1971 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.
What's the Highest Mortgage Rate in History? From 1971 to present, the highest average mortgage rate ever recorded was 18.63% in October 1981.
What was the highest prime rate? The highest prime rate was 21.5%, reached on December 19, 1980.
Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
The lowest average mortgage rates on record came about when the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. As a result, the weekly average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 2.65%, while the average 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage sunk to 2.10%.
The 12.5-percent increase in prices in 1980 was, like that in 1979, due primarily to increases in the food, shelter, and energy components, which accounted for more than two-thirds of the 1980 rise in the overall CPI.
10 Year Real Treasury Rate is at 2.29%, compared to 2.27% yesterday and 1.82% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 0.93%.
Inflation in the U.S. is measured by the consumer price index (CPI) calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The highest year-over-year inflation rate observed in the U.S. since its founding was 29.78% in 1778. Since the CPI was introduced, the highest inflation rate observed was 20.49% in 1917.
2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever
And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021. The average mortgage rate for that year was 2.96%.
Inflation began ratcheting upward in the mid-1960s and reached more than 14 percent in 1980. It eventually declined to average only 3.5 percent in the latter half of the 1980s.
What is the current prime rate? The prime rate today is 7.50%. That's based on the latest rate published by the Wall Street Journal.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate that in 2024, rates will start at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Effective Federal Funds Rate (I:EFFRND)
Effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, compared to 4.33% the previous market day and 5.33% last year.
Ray Dalio & Paul Volcker on How Volcker Broke the Back of Inflation in the 1980's.
The GDP bottom, or trough, was reached in the second quarter of 2009 (marking the technical end of the recession that is defined by "a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and ...
Background. The recession had multiple causes including the tightening of monetary policies by the United States and other developed nations. This was exacerbated by the 1979 energy crisis, mostly caused by the Iranian Revolution which saw oil prices rising sharply in 1979 and early 1980.
Interest rates reached their highest point in modern history in 1981 when the average rate was 16.64%, according to the Freddie Mac data. Fixed mortgage rates declined from there, but they finished the decade at around 10%. The 1980s were an expensive time to borrow money.
January is the most wonderful mortgage time of the year
For borrowers looking to get the best rates, January offers the most competitive pricing with lenders offering a nearly 20 bps discount compared to the rates offered in June through October.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
There is technically no limit to how many times you can refinance your home. If you meet the lender's qualifications and it makes financial sense for your situation, you can refinance as often as you wish. However, just because you have the option to refinance multiple times doesn't mean it's always a wise choice.