Small-cap valuations – Attractive
We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026. That is ahead of the long run rate of 13% growth (see Exhibit 3).
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
However, the highly overstretched valuation of large-cap stocks, together with a few positive developments may shift market participants' preference from large to small-cap stocks. At this stage, we recommend small cap stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank that have strong growth potential for 2025.
The small-cap funds saw an average return of 25.69% from December 2023 to December 2024, while mid-cap and large-cap funds yielded returns of 26.91% and 14.97% during the same period. So far, the Sensex has gained 8.92% and the Nifty has risen 9.49% in 2024.
High risk: While small-cap companies have a lot of growth potential, they have equal potential to fail. Small-cap stocks are a riskier investment than large-cap stocks. The companies usually have less access to investment capital and are more sensitive to market changes. This makes them a riskier investment.
Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
With small-cap mutual funds, always opt to invest for the long Term. Therefore, the minimum period for which you should be investing in small-cap mutual funds is 5-6 years. As mentioned earlier, small-cap mutual funds tend to be very volatile. For example, they may go up and down in the short Term.
As of October 19, 2024, the small cap index was overvalued at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 33.39, while the 3 year long term average stands at 24.49. But experts think there are certain sectors within the small cap that are fairly valued.
Market experts recommend that investors hold small caps for at least 10 years to benefit and allocate 8% of the portfolio to small caps.
The Undervalued Potential
Over the past three years, while small-cap stocks have been consistently undervalued, they are demonstrating higher profit growth expectations than large-caps going forward.
Nifty Smallcap 100 index has fallen 4% to its lowest level since mid-June amid concerns about Q3FY25 performance. Disappointing earnings results have led to increased selling pressure, with many stocks down significantly from their 1-year highs and foreign investors pulling out funds.
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
Managers can offer a long list of reasons small-cap value funds have underperformed. For much of the last 15 years, one challenge has been low interest rates, which tend to benefit growth stocks more than value ones because they make the earnings of growth companies more attractive.
Which is better large-cap, mid-cap, or small-cap? The suitability of large-cap, mid-cap, or small-cap depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Large-caps offer stability, mid-caps offer growth potential, while small-caps are high risk/high reward.
2025 outlook: Small caps offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the robust US economy. Multiple favorable trends – including onshoring and increased CAPEX – may explain why Wall Street expects to see the strongest earnings gains come from small caps in 2025.
Kotak Small Cap Fund and Axis Small Cap Fund gave 29.08% and 28.43% returns respectively in 2024. Quant Small Cap Fund offered a 28.34% return in the mentioned period. Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund gave a 26.31% return in the said period.
In July 2024, U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks after lagging for the first half of the year, driven by a cooler inflation report and improved market sentiment.
In a recession, it's smart to preserve your capital by investing in safer assets, such as bonds, particularly government bonds, which can perform well during economic downturns.
It's typically a great time to invest in small-cap stocks when the economy is rebounding, unemployment rates are decreasing quickly, and businesses are seeing strong earnings growth.
Rebound Potential: The initiation of rate cuts by central banks, signalling a move towards a more normalised interest rate environment, could reduce the performance gap between small and large cap stocks. This environment may favour small cap stocks, indicating a potential rebound.
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.