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The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.
In December 2024, 30-year mortgage rates averaged around 6.42%, according to Zillow data. Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.82%.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate that in 2024, rates will start at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
Expert Projections of Interest Rates in the Next Few Years
According to the St. Louis Fed, interest rates in the coming years are expected to be: 2025: 3.4% 2026: 2.9%
Which bank gives the highest interest rate on FD? As of 2024, Canara Bank offers the highest interest rate of 7.25% for 444 days.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Mortgage rates to hold near decade-plus highs, in what could feel like a 'new normal' for the housing market. By the end of 2025, McBride predicts that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will fall 0.54 percentage point from its year-end 2024 level (7.04%).
UK interest rates will fall “four times” or more in 2025 -- to at least 3.75% by the end of the year. A majority of economists made this two-fold forecast before UK long-term borrowing yesterday crept up to its highest level since 1998.
"As we look ahead into 2025, lower CD interest rates are a possibility," says Ben Alvarado, executive vice president at California Bank and Trust. After all, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate three times in 2024, and many analysts expect there to be at least two more Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Fed Cuts Rates For 3rd Consecutive Time
The Fed announced another 25bps cut to the federal funds rate in December 2024, marking the third consecutive reduction this year and bringing borrowing costs to the 4.25%-4.5% range, in line with expectations.
Strong labor market data combined with recent sticky inflation makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate anytime soon.
The first move up to 0.25 per cent came in December 2021 and a sharp series of rises from the MPC followed, driving base rate all the way up to 5.25 per cent in August 2023. Rates were then held at 5.25 per cent until August 2024, when they were cut to 5 per cent. The next cut was to 4.75 per cent in November 2024.
At its February 2024 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision supports progress of inflation to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range within a reasonable timeframe and continued moderate growth in employment.
Some economists are projecting three rate cuts this year, including Goldman Sachs, whose economists expect rates to end 2025 in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, down from its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Economists are currently split on whether the Fed will again lower its benchmark rate at its January 28-29 meeting.
However, nearly every economic forecast is predicting lower rates in 2024. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Finance Forecast for September 2023 predicts 30-year fixed mortgage rates will be in the 5% range for most of 2024: Q1: 6.1%
FHA Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024
Business Insider repeats the Fannie Mae prediction for 2024 that rates may reside between 6.4% and 7.1% for 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgages.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2024 and as outlined in the Summary of Economic Projections, more rate cuts could happen in 2025. Cuts to the federal funds rate influence declines in savings account rates, which is why we're already seeing fewer 5% interest savings accounts offered.
We expect continued easing with a 2025 year-end policy rate near the low end of the BoC's neutral rate estimate range of 2.25% to 3.25%.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.