In comparison, Schwab forecasts annual returns of 5.7% for U.S. investment-grade bonds and 3.6% for cash equivalents. Other long-term forecasts, compiled by Morningstar, show U.S. equities returning between 4-7% on average over the next 10-15 years, with higher expectations for international stocks.
While the 10-year return expectation for US stocks is just 5.6%, it's 9.6% for non-US developed-markets stocks and 11% for emerging-markets equities.
Based on total return, the average stock market return is about 13% over the past 10 years. Since 1965, the S&P 500 has provided annualized total returns of 10.2% through 2023, according to data compiled by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).
S&P 500 Investment Time Machine
Imagine you put $1,000 into either fund 10 years ago. You'd be up to roughly 126.4% — or $3,282 — from VOO and 126.9% — or $3,302 — from SPY. That's not exactly wealthy, but it shows how you can more than triple your money by holding an asset with relatively low long-term risk.
$3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year. $36,000 / 6% dividend yield = $600,000. On the other hand, if you're more risk-averse and prefer a portfolio yielding 2%, you'd need to invest $1.8 million to reach the $3,000 per month target: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
Invest in Dividend Stocks
Last but certainly not least, a stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income. However, at an example 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000, which is a substantial upfront investment.
While the term good is subjective, many professionals consider a good ROI to be 10.5% or greater for investments in stocks. This number is the standard because it's the average return of the S&P 500 , an index that serves as a benchmark of the overall performance of the U.S. stock market.
Variable Rate of Return: Financial advisors often project an average rate of return for 401(k) plans between 5 to 8% over 20 to 30 years. However, this does not guarantee such returns due to market volatility and other factors.
The key to this whole equation is being conservative with your return estimate, and instead concentrating on what you can actually control, the savings rate. So in a nutshell, my opinion is that you would be fortunate to average around 7-8% rate of return over a long-term basis.
Our 3% annualized 10-year return forecast for the S&P 500 is below the consensus average of 6%. We collected publicly available data on the long-term capital markets assumptions of 21 asset managers and constructed a distribution of the US equity return component of these capital markets assumptions.
So far, 2024 is shaping up to be a strong year for stocks. With interest rates expected to fall further, it's easy to assume next year could be another win for equity investors—if only the financial markets were that simple. In reality, there are real risks and uncertainties in play for 2025.
Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 10 Years
The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 13.316% over the last 10 years, as of the end of December 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 10.021%.
The table below shows the present value (PV) of $20,000 in 10 years for interest rates from 2% to 30%. As you will see, the future value of $20,000 over 10 years can range from $24,379.89 to $275,716.98.
Buy $4000 worth of goods at wholesale, resell them with a 150% markup. Pay your taxes. Done. Invest some of the money in tools and supplies and provide a service.
Bottom Line. If you put $1,000 into investments every month for 30 years, you can probably anticipate having more than $1 million by the end, assuming a 6% annual rate of return and few surprises.
If you're starting from scratch, online millionaire calculators (which return a variety of results given the same inputs) estimate that you'll need to save anywhere from $13,000 to $15,500 a month and invest it wisely enough to earn an average of 10% a year.
A $100,000 salary can yield a monthly income of $8,333.33, a biweekly paycheck of $3,846.15, a weekly income of $1,923.08, and a daily income of $384.62 based on 260 working days per year.