Although slowed by a volatile and bearish finish, small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, finished 2024 with a second consecutive positive quarter, gaining 0.3% in 4Q24.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
Small-Cap Stocks Outlook for 2025
Lee pointed out that 2025 is going to be a good year for small and mid-cap stocks. Backed by interest rate cuts and the incoming administration, companies are going to be expansionary and feel confident about mergers, added Lee.
2025 outlook: Small caps offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the robust US economy. Multiple favorable trends – including onshoring and increased CAPEX – may explain why Wall Street expects to see the strongest earnings gains come from small caps in 2025.
In particular, consider the remarkable gains in the S&P 500 Index, which was on track to close up more than 25% for 2024, well ahead of Wall Street analysts' forecasts, in one of its strongest annual performances of the last quarter-century.
Small-cap funds have the potential to generate higher returns with High Risk, but at the same time, they include higher risk than mid-cap and large-cap funds. If you do not mind taking a higher risk and want to invest long-term, you can choose small-cap mutual funds.
The future outlook for mid-cap and small-cap funds is cautiously optimistic. With India's GDP expected to grow at 6.5%-7% in FY 2025-26, sectors represented in under the mid and small cap indices are poised for expansion.
As of October 19, 2024, the small cap index was overvalued at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 33.39, while the 3 year long term average stands at 24.49. But experts think there are certain sectors within the small cap that are fairly valued.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
The underperformance of small caps in 2021 was driven by poor returns of small growth companies with low profits. These companies have underperformed historically. An approach that excludes small growth stocks with low profits may increase returns.
Chuck Royce: Small-caps trailed large-caps, with the Russell 2000 advancing 11.5% versus a gain of 24.5% for the Russell 1000. Curiously, micro-caps fared better than small-caps—the Russell Microcap increased 13.7% in 2024—and mega-caps fared better than large-caps. The Russell Top 50 Index rose 34.2%.
Rebound Potential: The initiation of rate cuts by central banks, signalling a move towards a more normalised interest rate environment, could reduce the performance gap between small and large cap stocks. This environment may favour small cap stocks, indicating a potential rebound.
Small-cap funds are riskier than large-cap funds and may not be suitable for everyone. Small-cap companies are more sensitive to market changes and can experience sudden and wide price fluctuations. Small-cap companies are less popular and smaller in size, making their stock less liquid.
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
Short-Term Investor. If you are investing in mutual funds for a short duration, stay away from small-cap mutual funds. Small-cap mutual funds perform well over a long period of time. However, over a short period of time, they tend to be very volatile.
If you can invest in a small-cap stock that has good fundamentals and an overall healthy analysis, the stock will most likely grow over the long term. If you can invest before a bull run on the market and hold the stock for the long term, then you could see a strong financial return.
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
If you have a high appetite for risk and can stay invested for 5 to 7 years, then investment in Small Cap Funds are advisable. It is also recommended that you do not overload your investment portfolio with small cap funds to minimise short term fluctuation in performance.
As shown below, the S&P 500 was up more than 23% in 2024, bested by both the Nasdaq (up nearly 29%) and the Nasdaq 100 (up nearly 25%). Those gains were boosted by the Magnificent 7 group of stocks (up nearly 67%) along with a handful of other mega-cap stocks (more on that below).
Global growth forecasts are largely unchanged from last quarter, with the pace of economic expansion in 2024 slowing moderately in 2025. Easing inflation, resilient consumers, and a broadening of central bank rate cuts underpin our expectations for a soft landing.