Many experts are a bit more conservative with their projections. For example, for 2024-2033, Charles Schwab projects that U.S. large-cap stocks will average 6.2% compounding returns, U.S. small company stocks will return 6.3%, and international large caps will average 7.6%.
Morningstar Multi-Asset Research (MAR) (not public-facing)
MAR's outlook for non-US stocks is substantially better than its case for US stocks. While the 10-year return expectation for US stocks is just 5.6%, it's 9.6% for non-US developed-markets stocks and 11% for emerging-markets equities.
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
$3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year. $36,000 / 6% dividend yield = $600,000. On the other hand, if you're more risk-averse and prefer a portfolio yielding 2%, you'd need to invest $1.8 million to reach the $3,000 per month target: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
Gains accumulate over time and can provide an advantage to those who invest early and let their money continue to accumulate. For example, $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 more than doubled to $286,000 in ten years, and after 30 years (ending in December 2023), grew to more than $1,800,000.
The average stock market return, as measured by the S&P 500 index, is about 11% over the last 10 years, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That is based on price return, which measures the capital gain or loss, or price change, of the index members.
The US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.27 in 12 months time.
S&P 500 Investment Time Machine
Imagine you put $1,000 into either fund 10 years ago. You'd be up to roughly 126.4% — or $3,282 — from VOO and 126.9% — or $3,302 — from SPY. That's not exactly wealthy, but it shows how you can more than triple your money by holding an asset with relatively low long-term risk.
Buy $4000 worth of goods at wholesale, resell them with a 150% markup. Pay your taxes. Done. Invest some of the money in tools and supplies and provide a service.
How long should I hold a stock to make a return on investment? While it varies, holding a stock for at least 3-5 years allows you to ride out market volatility and benefit from long-term growth. Historically, long-term holding increases the chances of positive returns.
Its analysts predict the S&P 500 will rise 12.6% to end 2025 at 6,666. Savita Subramanian, BofA's head of U.S. equity strategy, expects U.S. cyclical stocks to especially perform well. BMO Capital Markets forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 6,700, reflecting a gain of 13.2%.
There are two general periods where stocks realized a negative return over a 10-year span: one during the Great Depression in the 1930s and the other during the Great Recession in 2008.
Anticipated 10-year annualized returns for U.S. equities fell 0.4 percentage points as of November 8, 2024, to a range of 2.8% to 4.8%, reflecting hefty valuations.
Invest in Dividend Stocks
Last but certainly not least, a stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income. However, at an example 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000, which is a substantial upfront investment.
Most investors would view an average annual rate of return of 10% or more as a good ROI for long-term investments in the stock market. However, keep in mind that this is an average. Some years will deliver lower returns -- perhaps even negative returns. Other years will generate significantly higher returns.
The reality is that stocks do have market risk, but even those of you close to retirement or retired should stay invested in stocks to some degree in order to benefit from the upside over time. If you're 65, you could have two decades or more of living ahead of you and you'll want that potential boost.
Vanguard's updated 10-year annualized return projections:
U.S. bonds: 4.3% - 5.3% Global equities (ex-U.S., developed): 7.3% - 9.3% Global equities (emerging): 5.2% - 7.2% U.S. equities: 2.8% - 4.8%
Holding stocks for the long-term can help you ride the highs and lows of the market and benefit from lower tax rates, and it tends to be less costly. NYU Stern. "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2023." View "Annual Real Returns" section.
Amazon Stocks Price Target for 2030
We estimate Amazon's stock price to be $370 per share with 10% year-over-year revenue growth but compressed margins from more competition in its AWS unit.
The benchmark index of US equities is projected to rise to 6,500 by the end of 2025, a 9% price gain from its current level and a 10% total return including dividends, David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, writes in the team's report. Earnings are predicted to increase 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026.