During a recession, it is wise not to invest in high-risk assets, such as small-cap stocks, cryptocurrencies, and overly leveraged companies. These assets are already volatile and risky during good times and will be more so during economic downturns.
Avoid becoming a co-signer on a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt. Don't quit your job if you aren't prepared for a long search for a new one. If you own your own business, consider postponing spending on capital improvements and taking on new debt until the recovery has begun.
“The demand for travel and hospitality services typically declines as consumers cut back on discretionary spending,” Sarib Rehman, CEO of Flipcost, said. “To attract customers, airlines, hotels and travel agencies often lower their prices and offer more promotions.”
For workers and households, the picture was less rosy. Unemployment was at 5% at the end of 2007, reached a high of 10% in October 2009, and did not recover to 5% until 2015, nearly eight years after the beginning of the recession. Real median household income did not recover to pre-recession levels until 2016.
Examples of recession-proof assets include cash and cash-equivalent investments, such as three-month U.S. Treasury bills, while examples of recession-proof industries are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare, among others.
Stocks and bonds have relatively low transaction costs, allow you to diversify more easily and leave your cash more liquid than real estate (although the stock market is typically more volatile than the housing market). Meanwhile, real estate is a hedge against inflation and has tax advantages.
Financial advisors and accountants are recession proof businesses because they offer essential services that individuals and businesses need, regardless of the economic conditions. For example, during a recession, people and businesses may face financial challenges such as budgeting, debt management, and tax planning.
When things are looking bleak, consider holding on to your investments. Selling during market lows can be one of the worst things you can do for your portfolio — it locks in losses. When the market evens out down the road, rebalancing may be in order.
Precious metals, like gold and silver, tend to perform well during market slowdowns. But since the demand for these kinds of commodities often increases during recessions, their prices usually go up, too. You can invest in precious metals in a few different ways.
The good news is that recessions generally haven't lasted very long. Our analysis of 11 cycles since 1950 shows that recessions have persisted between two and 18 months, with the average spanning about 10 months.
A stable value investment is neither insured nor guaranteed by the U.S. government. There is no assurance that the investment will be able to maintain a stable net asset value, and it is possible to lose money in such an investment. All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
Don't: Take On High-Interest Debt
Chances are your highest-interest debt is credit card debt. Taking as big a bite out of that debt as possible frees up money that you can put toward basic needs during a recession.
The industries known to fare better during recessions are generally those that supply the population with essentials we can't live without. They include utilities, healthcare, consumer staples, and, in some pundits' opinions, maybe even technology.
Don't use funds that you need soon.
Make sure you have the time horizon to weather any losses, or hold your cash in stable assets like an interest-bearing savings or checking account, money market fund, or CD—especially if you're expecting a large expense or purchase in the short-term.
Inflation Is Eating Away at Your Funds
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average rate of inflation from April 2023 to April 2024 was 3.4%. If you've been keeping your money in a savings account with a lower yield than the rate of inflation, you should switch over to a higher-yield account.
The Bottom Line
CDs are a comparatively safe investment. They can provide a stable income regardless of stock market conditions when they're managed properly. Always consider emergency money that you might need in the future when you're thinking of purchasing a CD or starting a CD ladder.
Global recession outlook
There is now a 35% chance that the global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2024, and a 45% chance that it will do so by the end of 2025.
The fiscal stimulus in ARRA is widely believed to have reduced the severity of the Great Recession (Chodorow-Reich et al. 2012; CBO 2015). By the CBO's estimate, the fiscal stimulus bill caused GDP to be 0.4 to 2.3 percent higher in 2011 than it otherwise would have been (CBO 2015).
The Financial Crisis of 2007–08
This sparked the Great Recession, the most-severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it wreaked havoc in financial markets around the world.