You could move a large percentage of your 401K into the money market portion of the fund or stable value fund area. If you are losing sleep, place 90% or more in a stable value fund. Your expense ratio may increase, but the chances of a recession taking a ``significant'' percentage of your 401K will be reduced.
Diversify Your Portfolio
Bonds, on the other hand, are safer investments but usually produce lesser returns. Having a diversified 401(k) of mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in stocks, bonds and even cash can help protect your retirement savings in the event of an economic downturn.
What Are the Biggest Risks to Avoid During a Recession? Many types of financial risks are heightened in a recession. This means that you're better off avoiding some risks that you might take in better economic times—such as co-signing a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt.
Liquidity is crucial in uncertain times. “I've seen people struggle during a recession because their assets were too tied up in investments. This is why I suggest keeping some of your money in cash or in easily liquidated instruments like Treasury bills,” Kovar said.
Don't “panic sell” your investments
The stock market historically has bounced back from short-term declines, so pulling your investments could mean missing out on some of the market's best days. Staying invested is usually safer than trying to time the market. Selling is how you realize losses in your account.
In other words, if you have a solid financial plan, and your 401(k) is well-optimized, sometimes the best thing to do in a market downturn is to stay the course, especially if you are a younger investor with years until retirement.
401(k) retirement plans may be “frozen” by a company's management, temporarily halting new contributions and withdrawals. A freeze can occur in the case of a corporate restructuring such as a merger or if your company changes 401(k) plan providers.
Your investment is put into various asset options, including stocks. The value of those stocks is directly tied to the stock market's performance. This means that when the stock market is up, so is your investment, and vice versa. The odds are the value of your retirement savings may decline if the market crashes.
Try to avoid making 401(k) withdrawals before age 59 ½, as you will incur taxes on the withdrawal (unless you have a Roth account) in addition to a 10% penalty. If you are closer to retirement, it's smart to shift your 401(k) allocations to more conservative assets like bonds and money market funds.
Bond funds, money market funds, index funds, stable value funds, and target-date funds are lower-risk options for your 401(k).
The reality is that stocks do have market risk, but even those of you close to retirement or retired should stay invested in stocks to some degree in order to benefit from the upside over time. If you're 65, you could have two decades or more of living ahead of you and you'll want that potential boost.
Fixed annuities offer a guaranteed rate of return on your investment, making them a relatively low-risk option. A fixed-rate annuity can safeguard against a recession by providing a guaranteed income regardless of what the market does.
Increase your contributions
It may take some courage, but increasing your contributions to retirement accounts during a recession can be a great financial move. You benefit by buying a lot more when prices are down, setting your portfolio up for future success when the economy recovers.
Should I Move my 401(k) to a Stable Value Fund? This depends on your risk tolerance, and how long you have until you retire. Stable value funds are ideal for investors nearing retirement. They are not designed for growth.
Therefore, in the worst possible scenario, in a total economic collapse (and the insurance company happens to survive) your principal plus any interest earned would still be “the same” amount. If you started with $100,000, you would still have $100,000.
Any money you contribute to your 401(k), such as money contributed via payroll deduction, is money you can't lose. That employer can't take that money from you, even if you leave the company entirely. But there is another portion of your retirement plan you may not be able to claim: your vested balance.
It's better to own broadly diversified mutual funds or index funds that track a broad basket of stocks, such as the S&P 500. The fixed-income portion of your portfolio, which consists of bonds, money markets, CDs, and other cash equivalents, will act as a downside buffer against a steep stock market decline.
The average 401(k) balance rose to $107,700 by the third quarter of 2023, up 11% from the year before, according to the latest update from Fidelity Investments, one of the largest retirement plan providers in the nation.
Riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds tend to lose value in a recession, while gold and U.S. Treasuries appreciate. Shares of large companies with ample, steady cash flows and dividends tend to outperform economically sensitive stocks in downturns.
Inflation Is Eating Away at Your Funds
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average rate of inflation from April 2023 to April 2024 was 3.4%. If you've been keeping your money in a savings account with a lower yield than the rate of inflation, you should switch over to a higher-yield account.
However, while the average recession lasts just 11 months, it generally takes the market more than two years to bounce back to its pre-bear peak. So, the first thing you should do to make your portfolio more recession-resistant is shore up your cash reserves.