Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 30 Years
The average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.985% over the last 30 years, as of the end of December 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 30-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 8.262%.
Since 1965, the S&P 500 has provided annualized total returns of 10.2% through 2023, according to data compiled by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB). Over those 60 years, the S&P 500 rose in individual years by as much as 37.6% (in 1995) — and fell by as much as 37% as well (in 2008).
The most extreme example of the last 100 years was the crash of the 1930s, which took 25 years to get back to its previous high. The S&P 500 took almost six years to fully recover from the crashes of 2000 (the dot-com bubble) and 2008 (the global financial crisis).
Between 1957 and 2021, the index averaged an annualized rate of return of roughly 11.88%. If you look at the TSX Composite Index 1, over the 50 year period from November 30, 1971 to November 20, 2021, the average annualized return was 7.94%.
$3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year. $36,000 / 6% dividend yield = $600,000. On the other hand, if you're more risk-averse and prefer a portfolio yielding 2%, you'd need to invest $1.8 million to reach the $3,000 per month target: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
Historically, the average stock market return is about 10% per year as measured by the S&P 500 stock market index. While this number can give you a general sense of how the stock market may perform over time, additional context is helpful for understanding what it means for your investments.
Stock market corrections are not uncommon
As you can see in the chart below, a decline of at least 10% occurred in 10 out of 20 years, or 50% of the time, with an average pullback of 15%.
The Great Depression of 1929–39
This was the worst financial and economic disaster of the 20th century. Many believe that the Great Depression was triggered by the Wall Street crash of 1929 and later exacerbated by the poor policy decisions of the U.S. government.
It lasted only eight months and was not particularly severe in terms of jobs lost, with payroll employment declining by less than 2 percent (compared with more than 6 percent during the Great Recession and nearly 15 percent during the pandemic recession).
Older investors in their 70s and over keep between 30% and 33% of their portfolio assets in U.S. stocks and between 5% and 7% in international stocks. Generally speaking, your age determines how much risk you're willing to take on your investments.
But stock prices soared in 1995--arguably, the best year in history. A number of major money managers made switches out of equities into government bonds in early 1996--fearing high stock prices and a market sell off. But 1996 was again a strong year for most of the market.
While retirees should in most cases be in the stock market, it can be so volatile in times of economic uncertainty. It's always wise to secure other ways to maximize your retirement resources so you don't find yourself in an unpleasant situation.
Invest in Dividend Stocks
Last but certainly not least, a stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income. However, at an example 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000, which is a substantial upfront investment.
Junk Bonds
Junk bonds are high-yield corporate bonds issued by companies with lower credit ratings. Because of their higher risk of default, they offer higher interest rates, potentially providing returns over 10%. During economic growth periods, the risk of default decreases, making junk bonds particularly attractive.
Variable Rate of Return: Financial advisors often project an average rate of return for 401(k) plans between 5 to 8% over 20 to 30 years. However, this does not guarantee such returns due to market volatility and other factors.
Key takeaways. In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%. The probability of a recession happening by the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 45%.
The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.
For workers and households, the picture was less rosy. Unemployment was at 5% at the end of 2007, reached a high of 10% in October 2009, and did not recover to 5% until 2015, nearly eight years after the beginning of the recession. Real median household income did not recover to pre-recession levels until 2016.
Having little or no patience
This bias often causes us jump to conclusions, make impulse decisions, and constantly change our strategy. Ultimately, many people lose money in the stock market because they simply can't wait long enough for meaningful profits to arrive.
One of those tools is known as the Rule 72. For example, let's say you have saved $50,000 and your 401(k) holdings historically has a rate of return of 8%. 72 divided by 8 equals 9 years until your investment is estimated to double to $100,000.
Stock markets quickly recovered a majority of their Black Monday losses. In just two trading sessions, the DJIA gained back 288 points, or 57 percent, of the total Black Monday downturn. Less than two years later, US stock markets surpassed their pre-crash highs.
You plan to invest $100 per month for 30 years and expect a 6% return. In this case, you would contribute $36,000 over your investment timeline. At the end of the term, your bond portfolio would be worth $97,451. With that, your portfolio would earn more than $61,000 in returns during your 30 years of contributions.
S&P 500 Investment Time Machine
Imagine you put $1,000 into either fund 10 years ago. You'd be up to roughly 126.4% — or $3,282 — from VOO and 126.9% — or $3,302 — from SPY. That's not exactly wealthy, but it shows how you can more than triple your money by holding an asset with relatively low long-term risk.
Buy $4000 worth of goods at wholesale, resell them with a 150% markup. Pay your taxes. Done. Invest some of the money in tools and supplies and provide a service.