It was a banner year for U.S. stocks in 2024, although the fuller story can be told under the surface of the capitalization-weighted indexes like the S&P 500. As shown below, the S&P 500 was up more than 23% in 2024, bested by both the Nasdaq (up nearly 29%) and the Nasdaq 100 (up nearly 25%).
Budget 2025's starry aim: Does India need more funds to fuel its cosmic dreams? Market Expert Ruchir Sharma says that the stock market's momentum looks likely to sputter in 2025 and that it could falter as investors grow wary of the US's mounting debt problems.
On Thursday Goldman Sachs said it now forecasts a 30 per cent chance that there will be major stock market corrections in 2025.
The US market has had a good run in 2024, driven by the big tech papers. Donald Trump's main themes – tax cuts, deregulation, re-shoring – could continue to boost prices in 2025. S&P 500 target: 6,500 points (12/2025).
Other long-term forecasts, compiled by Morningstar, show U.S. equities returning between 4-7% on average over the next 10-15 years, with higher expectations for international stocks. In most cases, these predictions still see U.S. stocks outperforming U.S. corporate bonds.
Wall Street analysts generally expect stocks to post another year of gains in 2025 as a strong economy and declining interest rates boost corporate earnings. The gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the market is expected to narrow as more companies begin to reap the benefits of artificial intelligence.
Stock market recovery ahead? Emkay Global in its latest strategy note said the domestic stock market could remain weak till March and that a stability is likely from April onwards, with earnings outlook improving and the FPI selling abating by then. Consumption should bounce back from the second half of 2025, it said.
If you're taking a long-term perspective on the stock market and are properly diversifying your portfolio, it's almost always a good time to invest. That's because the market tends to go up over time, and time in the market is more important than timing the market, as the old saying goes.
Can the rally continue? Wall Street thinks so. On average, analysts are forecasting that the S&P 500 will rise around 10 percent in 2025. That includes analysts at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, who until recently were bracing for a downturn.
Wall Street forecasts reviewed by CNN show that most strategists expect double-digit percentage growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, though more moderate than in 2024. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to rise 14.8% in 2025, according to FactSet.
We expect moderating shelter inflation in 2024 as the lag in market rents pricing should catch up in the inflation readings. We forecast core PCE prices—the Fed's preferred inflation metric—to rise 2.4% in 2024, down from 3.4% in 2023.
What experts are predicting: They see the benchmark index climbing to just below 6,700 by the end of 2025, according to FactSet, for a gain of about 13 percent from Tuesday's close. If analysts' models are correct, it would mark a third consecutive year of double-digit annual gains for the S&P 500.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
On average, it takes around five months for a correction to bottom out, but once the market reaches that point and starts to turn positive, it recovers in around four months. Stock market crashes, however, usually take much longer to fully recover.
The U.S. stock market generally did well in 2024 and may continue strong in 2025. However, we expect to see gear shifts and increased market volatility as potential policies from the incoming Trump administration combine with uncertainty about inflation and global economic strength.
Key factors driving the downtrend and this week's outlook. Indian stock markets have been volatile due to foreign investor outflows, global consolidation, and dollar appreciation impacting emerging markets. The domestic liquidity from DIIs provides stability.
Last week marked the two-year anniversary of the current bull market, with stocks gaining about 60% since 2022. Historically, most bull markets make it to the end of year three, but returns tend to moderate. We expect the same this time, as fundamental conditions are still solid but slowing.
Global growth forecasts are largely unchanged from last quarter, with the pace of economic expansion in 2024 slowing moderately in 2025. Easing inflation, resilient consumers, and a broadening of central bank rate cuts underpin our expectations for a soft landing.
The economic forecast for 2025 shows growth, but at a slower pace than 2024. Inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve's target, with President-elect Trump's policies limiting production while stimulating spending. The greatest risk is not a recession but limited production capability as immigration falls.
MarketWatch reported that original top-down estimates for the S&P 500 in 2024 ranged from 4,200 at JPMorgan to 5,400 at Yardeni Research, with a median target of 5,000. The bottom-up price target for the S&P 500 was at 5,131.92 at the end of last year.