Mortgage rates are currently expected to continue trending down through 2024 and into 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association thinks that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to 5.5% in 2025.
In its January Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.9% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.1% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the first quarter of 2025.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Our Chart of the Day is from Goldman Sachs, which plots the firm's expectation that the 30-year mortgage rate will stay above 6% through 2025. Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates.
The latest Monetary Policy report says rates are expected to remain around 5.25% until autumn 2024 and then decline gradually to 4.25% by the end of 2026. The future of interest rates depends significantly on how quickly inflation drops – while wage growth and unemployment also play a factor.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
For 2025, the rates will go down to 4.5%, and in 2026, it is predicted to be 4.2%.
Sure, mortgage rates could fall to 3% at some point, but chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon. Moreover, waiting for rates to drop before you buy your home could backfire. Instead, consider buying your house now and refinancing your mortgage when rates improve.
We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6 percent by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability. Additionally, the decline in mortgage rates is likely to push refinancing volumes upward, along with some pickup in purchase financing.
In the December report, CBO estimates that the federal funds rate will average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 before falling to 3.7 percent by the end of 2025.
Instead, we'll probably see some gradual 25-basis-point cuts here and there. If that happens, rates could fall to closer to 6% by the end of 2024. Channel expects rates to remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%.
According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.
The latest yield curve from the BoE forecasts a cut in interest rates in quarter 2 of this year. But it's clear this higher for longer interest rate environment is here to stay. Data shows interest rates will remain above 3% well into 2027.
While the shift in monetary policy has spurred a sharp drop mortgage rates this quarter, Fannie Mae noted a limit to how far these rates will fall: it projects that the 30-year fixed rate will average 6.7% in 2024, before falling to 6.2% in 2025.
Mortgage rates change all the time. So a good mortgage rate could look drastically different from one day to the next. Right now, good mortgage rates for a 15-year fixed loan generally start in the high-5% range, while good rates for a 30-year mortgage typically start in the mid-6% range.
Interest Rates Could Stay Well Above 3% Through 2030, Larry Summers Warns - Bloomberg.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
MBA's baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.
Experts have forecasted that mortgage rates will go down in 2024, but exactly when they'll start trending down depends on the economy and when the Federal Reserve starts lowering the federal funds rate.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is currently expected to cut interest rates by a little more than 1% over the course of its seven remaining scheduled meetings of 2024. This may leave short-term interest rates at approximately 4% by December 2024, based on market forecasts.
Legally, there isn't a limit on how many times you can refinance your home loan. However, mortgage lenders do have a few mortgage refinance requirements you'll need to meet each time you apply for a loan, and some special considerations are important to note if you want a cash-out refinance.
Right now, experts believe mortgage rates will go down in 2024 and 2025. But a too-hot economy could complicate things. Mortgage rates are often indirectly impacted by Fed rate changes. So as the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever
Rates plummeted in 2020 and 2021 in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. By July 2020, the 30-year fixed rate fell below 3% for the first time. And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021. The average mortgage rate for that year was 2.96%.
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.8% and 6.1% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
The average two-year fixed rate mortgage is currently 5.93 per cent, according to Moneyfacts. That compares to 5.54 per cent for five-year fixes. Those with the biggest deposits or with larger equity stakes in their home can also do much better when fixing for five years, rather than two years.