Discounted Cash Flows
This technique is highlighted in Leading with Finance as the gold standard of valuation. Discounted cash flow analysis is the process of estimating the value of a company or investment based on the money, or cash flows, it's expected to generate in the future.
Most finance courses espouse the gospel of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis as the preferred valuation methodology for all cash flow-generating assets. In theory (and in college final examinations), this technique works great. In practice, however, DCF can be difficult to apply in evaluating equities.
There are three primary approaches under which most valuation methods sit, which include the income approach, market approach, and asset-based approach. The income approach estimates value based on future earnings, using techniques like the discounted cash flow analysis.
Typically, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method tends to give the highest valuation. This method calculates the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate, often resulting in a higher valuation because it considers the company's potential for future growth and profitability.
According to The Appraisal Institute the highest and best use of a property is defined as: "The reasonably probable and legal use of vacant land or an improved property that is physically possible, appropriately supported, and financially feasible and that results in the highest value."
Key Differences Between DCF and NPV. Purpose: DCF: Primarily used to determine the intrinsic value of an investment based on its expected cash flows. NPV: Used to assess the profitability of a project or investment by comparing the present value of cash inflows and outflows.
Generally, DCF is more suitable for valuing businesses that have stable and predictable cash flows, high growth potential, or significant competitive advantages; for businesses that are not comparable to other businesses in the same industry or sector; or for businesses that are undergoing significant changes or ...
The main drawback of DCF analysis is that it's easily prone to errors, bad assumptions, and overconfidence in knowing what a company is actually “worth”.
We use LBOs to acquire a company, enhance its performance, and then sell it for a higher price. However, DCF can estimate the intrinsic value of stocks, bonds, and real estate for long-term investment decisions. Private equity and investment banking mostly use LBOs to generate high returns quickly.
The most commonly used method to value banks is price-to-earnings (P/E), measured as the ratio of the bank's stock price to its earnings per share (EPS). It helps assess the bank's market value relative to earnings.
Levered DCF: The levered DCF approach calculates the equity value directly, unlike the unlevered DCF, which arrives at the enterprise value (and requires adjustments thereafter to arrive at equity value). Unlevered DCF: The unlevered DCF discounts the unlevered FCFs to arrive at the enterprise value (TEV).
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) can provide an accurate assessment of probable future business earnings. DCF estimates the company's value based on the future or projected cash flow. This is a good method to use because sometimes the business will be worth more than you think.
- Use DCF for companies with significant future projects or growth forecasts. - Use DDM for companies with a stable and predictable dividend policy. - Use Price-Income for quick comparisons or when dealing with industry-standardized metrics.
Therefore, LBO models calculate the floor valuation of a potential investment because it determines what a financial sponsor could “afford” to pay for the target.
While the discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology is the most rigorous and financially sound for business valuation, it does have several significant limitations, namely: Extreme sensitivity to certain input assumptions. Uncertainty in calculating the terminal value of the company.
– FCFF aids in assessing a company's financial performance. It also helps determine its ability to generate cash flows to meet debt obligations and fund future growth. – FCFE assists in evaluating the company's capacity to distribute dividends, repurchase shares, or undertake other actions to enhance shareholder value.
DCF Valuation truly captures the underlying fundamental drivers of a business (cost of equity, weighted average cost of capital, growth rate, re-investment rate, etc.). Consequently, this comes closest to estimating intrinsic value of the asset/business. Unlike other valuations, DCF relies on Free Cash Flows.
There are two reasons for that. One, NPV considers the time value of money, translating future cash flows into today's dollars. Two, it provides a concrete number that managers can use to easily compare an initial outlay of cash against the present value of the return.
The main difference between discounted cash flow vs. net present value is that net present value subtracts upfront year 0 costs (in actual dollars estimated) from the sum of the present value of the cash flows. The discounted cash flow method doesn't subtract these initial costs that include capital expenditures.
2: “Highest and best use of a property is an economic concept that measures the interaction of four criteria: legal permissibility, physical possibility, financial feasibility, and maximum profitability.” 12.34.
Sometimes it's Precedent Transactions because they include control premium. Occasionally, it's Public Comparables if the market is trading at record high multiples. And it can also be DCF if we use very optimistic assumptions. So there isn't one valuation methodology that always gives the highest valuation.
Using comparable transactions will most likely give you the highest valuation as the price would have the premium built in to compensate shareholders above intrinsic value. While this could be easier than the complexities within the assumptions of a DCF model (growth rate, discount rate, terminal value, tax rate, etc.)