LBO or DCF depends on investment goals and transaction type. We use LBOs to acquire a company, enhance its performance, and then sell it for a higher price. However, DCF can estimate the intrinsic value of stocks, bonds, and real estate for long-term investment decisions.
Discounted Cash Flows
This technique is highlighted in Leading with Finance as the gold standard of valuation. Discounted cash flow analysis is the process of estimating the value of a company or investment based on the money, or cash flows, it's expected to generate in the future.
Using comparable transactions will most likely give you the highest valuation as the price would have the premium built in to compensate shareholders above intrinsic value. While this could be easier than the complexities within the assumptions of a DCF model (growth rate, discount rate, terminal value, tax rate, etc.)
Most finance courses espouse the gospel of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis as the preferred valuation methodology for all cash flow-generating assets. In theory (and in college final examinations), this technique works great. In practice, however, DCF can be difficult to apply in evaluating equities.
According to The Appraisal Institute the highest and best use of a property is defined as: "The reasonably probable and legal use of vacant land or an improved property that is physically possible, appropriately supported, and financially feasible and that results in the highest value."
Key Differences Between DCF and NPV. Purpose: DCF: Primarily used to determine the intrinsic value of an investment based on its expected cash flows. NPV: Used to assess the profitability of a project or investment by comparing the present value of cash inflows and outflows.
Typically, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method tends to give the highest valuation. This method calculates the present value of expected future cash flows using a discount rate, often resulting in a higher valuation because it considers the company's potential for future growth and profitability.
We do not use a DCF if the company has unstable or unpredictable cash flows (tech or bio-tech start-up) or when debt and working capital serve a fundamentally different role.
There are three primary approaches under which most valuation methods sit, which include the income approach, market approach, and asset-based approach. The income approach estimates value based on future earnings, using techniques like the discounted cash flow analysis.
- Use DCF for companies with significant future projects or growth forecasts. - Use DDM for companies with a stable and predictable dividend policy. - Use Price-Income for quick comparisons or when dealing with industry-standardized metrics.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) can provide an accurate assessment of probable future business earnings. DCF estimates the company's value based on the future or projected cash flow. This is a good method to use because sometimes the business will be worth more than you think.
The Revenue Multiple (times revenue) Method
A venture that earns $1 million per year in revenue, for example, could have a multiple of 2 or 3 applied to it, resulting in a $2 or $3 million valuation. Another business might earn just $500,000 per year and earn a multiple of 0.5, yielding a valuation of $250,000.
Disadvantages. DCF Valuation is extremely sensitive to assumptions related to perpetual growth rate and discount rate. Any minor tweaking here and there, and the DCF Valuation will fluctuate wildly and the fair value so generated won't be accurate.
LBO models will theoretically provide the lowest valuation, since they represent a floor value for the company.
LBO – An LBO usually yields a lower valuation. It is a leveraged buyout driven by IRR rather than strategic value. After all, the private equity fund wants to sell the company for a profit down the road. Here the numbers of the entire acquisition must add up.
The main Cons of a DCF model are:
Prone to overcomplexity. Very sensitive to changes in assumptions. A high level of detail may result in overconfidence. Looks at company valuation in isolation.
If you think about a standard DCF, metrics like Unlevered Free Cash Flow and Levered Free Cash Flow are a bit “imaginary” – because no company distributes them to its investors. The DDM is more grounded because it's based on the company's actual distributions and potential future value.
DCFs are used to judge the fundamental value of a company, which differs from market-based valuations that rely on investor sentiment, wherein a company is valued based on how the market values comparable companies.
The Highest and Best Use (HBU) Analysis is a comprehensive evaluation aimed at identifying the most optimal use of vacant land or land considered vacant. This analysis focuses on four key criteria: physical possibility, legal permissibility, financial feasibility, and maximum productivity.
Therefore, LBO models calculate the floor valuation of a potential investment because it determines what a financial sponsor could “afford” to pay for the target.
Discounted cash flow valuations, with their long lists of explicit assumptions are much more difficult to defend than relative valuations, where the value used for a multiple often comes from what the market is paying for similar firms.
There are two reasons for that. One, NPV considers the time value of money, translating future cash flows into today's dollars. Two, it provides a concrete number that managers can use to easily compare an initial outlay of cash against the present value of the return.
DCF analysis serves as a cornerstone of financial valuation, especially in the venture capital arena. It enables investors to estimate the present value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for risk and the time value of money.