September is considered a poor month for cryptocurrency, often called "Red September" or the "September Curse," due to a historical trend of negative returns, with Bitcoin averaging a 3.77% drop since 2013. Key factors include seasonal market dips, institutional portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, summer vacation ends, and increased macroeconomic uncertainty, such as Federal Reserve meetings.
Fiscal Deadlines and Policy Changes
At the same time, central banks like the Federal Reserve often review their monetary policies around September. Investors may grow nervous about potential interest rate hikes or other changes that could affect the economy, leading to cautious behavior in the market.
They also call it the September curse because this is a month in all years, most of the years where you have seen a decline in crypto prices for the month of September. Actually, when you look at from 2019 to 2022, Bitcoin fell average 8 to 9% in all September.
“October is one of the most bullish months for Bitcoin. ” CEO of Quantum Economics Mati Greenspan explains how October has historically been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, earning the nickname “Uptober.”
In some jurisdictions, mutual funds and institutions may sell holdings before fiscal year-ends – for example, the tax year ends in September for mutual funds in the US – contributing to downward pressure. There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset school fees.
Summary. September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500, averaging a 1.2% loss since 1928, with frequent volatility and notable declines. Possible causes include portfolio rebalancing, tax strategies, and a self-fulfilling prophecy as investors anticipate weakness, but no single explanation dominates.
S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns
This shift in sentiment comes as traders brace for what's historically been crypto's cruelest month: “Red Septmber.” Bitcoin has dropped an average of 3.77% in price each September since 2013. The broader macroeconomic picture adds another layer of complexity.
The 1% rule in crypto trading is a risk management strategy where you never risk more than 1% of your total trading capital on a single trade, calculated by setting a stop-loss to limit potential losses, helping protect your overall portfolio from significant damage and reducing emotional trading. For example, with a $10,000 account, your maximum loss on any trade is $100, achieved by adjusting your position size based on where you set your stop-loss.
Historically, September has been the weakest month for US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of -0.8% over the last 35 years. September has historically been the month where stock market volatility rises the most, with the VIX index rising by an average of 8.2% since 1990.
September is historically the month when stock markets tend to perform poorly. The September Effect is a global phenomenon, not limited to U.S. markets. Analysts suggest the effect may stem from seasonal behavior as investors adjust portfolios post-summer.
The "90-90-90 rule" in trading is a harsh reality check stating that 90% of new traders lose 90% of their money within the first 90 days, highlighting the high failure rate due to emotional decisions, poor risk management, and lack of education/strategy. It serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that success requires discipline, a solid trading plan, continuous learning, and strict risk control (like risking only 1-2% per trade) to avoid the common pitfalls that wipe out most beginners.
October is historically one of the best months for Bitcoin. So on today's stocks and translation, we are taking a look at Bitcoin seasonality and the next potential catalyst for the King of crypto. And just a quick reminder that seasonality refers to those recurring pas patterns that we typically see year after year.
Elon Musk's stance on crypto is complex but generally bullish on Bitcoin and Dogecoin, viewing them as alternatives to fiat currency, though he's criticized Bitcoin's energy use (while also praising its energy basis) and has warned against reckless investing, emphasizing volatility and personal research; he's integrating crypto plans for his "everything app," X (formerly Twitter), while also banning certain crypto-related spam apps. He sees Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a way to secure value, unlike "fake" government money, and supports Dogecoin due to its meme status and potential connection to his government efficiency initiatives.
The 3 5 7 rule is a risk management strategy in trading built around three core principles: Risk no more than 3% of your capital on a single trade. Limit exposure to 5% of capital across all open positions. Target around 7% profit or maintain a reward objective aligned with that level.
Experts are increasingly signaling a potential crypto bull run in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by a convergence of macroeconomic factors. Analysts suggest Bitcoin could surge between $300,000 and $600,000 if these catalysts materialize.
This will depend on the time period you look at, but over the past century, September has been the worst-performing month for stocks, losing around 1% on average.
The 3-5-7 rule in trading is a risk management guideline: risk no more than 3% of capital on one trade, keep total risk across all trades under 5%, and aim for winning trades to be at least 7% larger than losing trades (or a 7:1 ratio) to ensure profits outweigh losses and protect capital. It promotes discipline, reduces emotional trading, and balances potential high rewards with controlled risk, making it great for beginners.