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The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Current Forecasts and Expert Opinions
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation.
At its February 2024 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision supports progress of inflation to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range within a reasonable timeframe and continued moderate growth in employment.
So far the decline in mortgage costs from November 2023's peak levels has been bumpy. Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025.
The fed funds target rate is now set at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed held rates at 5.25% to 5.50% from July 2023 to September 2024. Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed raised rates eleven times, from near 0%. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, December 18, 2024.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
The lowest average mortgage rates on record came about when the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. As a result, the weekly average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 2.65%, while the average 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage sunk to 2.10%.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
Fannie Mae's chief economist says, “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple of months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings.” They are putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in 2026.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
FHA Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024
Business Insider repeats the Fannie Mae prediction for 2024 that rates may reside between 6.4% and 7.1% for 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgages.
Which bank gives the highest interest rate on FD? As of 2024, Canara Bank offers the highest interest rate of 7.25% for 444 days.
As a result, we expect the Bank to cut interest rates from 4.75% now to 3.50% in early 2026, further than the low of 4.00% that investors currently expect.
At the September 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates by 50 basis points, easing monetary policy for the first time in four years due to progress on the Fed's dual mandate. This lowers the interest rate target to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
January is the most wonderful mortgage time of the year
For borrowers looking to get the best rates, January offers the most competitive pricing with lenders offering a nearly 20 bps discount compared to the rates offered in June through October.
The bottom line. Predicting exactly when mortgage rates will hit 5% is difficult. It could happen by late 2025, but market conditions could speed up or delay this timeline. "Some consumers feel rates will drop in the next two to four months [but] that may never happen," says Rathbun.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
You can get at most two mortgages at the same time for your home in most cases. Depending on the lender you work with, the interest rates and requirements may vary. Also, instead of a second mortgage, you can go for a home refinancing to access more loans without taking on more mortgages on your property.
However, interest rates predictions are difficult as any further cuts depend on factors such as what happens with inflation. So predictions will have to be revised. For example, in January 2024, Capital Economics forecast that interest rates would be reduced to 4.00% by the end of 2024.
The fed funds rate has never been as high as it was in the 1980s. The main reason is because the Fed wanted to combat inflation, which soared in 1980 to its highest level on record: 14.6 percent.