However, nearly every economic forecast is predicting lower rates in 2024. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Finance Forecast for September 2023 predicts 30-year fixed mortgage rates will be in the 5% range for most of 2024: Q1: 6.1%
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC in 2023 that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
"While I'd love to say rates will drop below 6% in 2025, I think it's a moderate probability and not a certainty," says Steven Parangi, a licensed mortgage loan originator and owner of Alpine Mortgage Services.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second term, however, the outlook is far less certain. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now expected to stay elevated between 6% and 6.5% for the next two years. Just two months ago, economists thought it would fall to the 5% range by the second half of 2025.
Fannie Mae's chief economist says, “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple of months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings.” They are putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in 2026.
More homes on the market in 2025 may create better opportunities for buyers. Higher inventory means fewer bidding wars, which may keep home prices more stable. Falling mortgage rates could also ease the cost of buying a home, though it may take time.
At its February 2024 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision supports progress of inflation to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range within a reasonable timeframe and continued moderate growth in employment.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
The lowest average mortgage rates on record came about when the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. As a result, the weekly average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 2.65%, while the average 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage sunk to 2.10%.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
Current Forecasts and Expert Opinions
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation.
Our estimate of the average interest rate lock-in effect for conventional mortgage borrowers was up from $42,000 in October to $47,800 in November 2024. House price growth may continue to moderate given increased supply and declining but still high mortgage rates.
After 14 months of stagnancy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate three times in 2024, ending the year with a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest since February 2023.
Which bank gives the highest interest rate on FD? As of 2024, Canara Bank offers the highest interest rate of 7.25% for 444 days.
So far the decline in mortgage costs from November 2023's peak levels has been bumpy. Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025.
A sharp decline in home values is one of the most immediate consequences of a housing market crash. For homeowners, this means that the equity they've built up over time can quickly erode. This decline can leave homeowners in a precarious financial position, particularly those who bought at the peak of the market.
In 2026, the housing market is expected to continue its upward trend, with home prices rising at a moderate pace. The pent-up demand for housing is expected to be supplied between 2025 and 2030, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
In a best-case scenario, mortgage rates could fall closer to 6% at some point in 2025, but they aren't expected to dip much lower than that — and rates could also go the other direction if the economy weakens or inflation rises.
Strong labor market data combined with recent sticky inflation makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds rate anytime soon.