Current Forecasts and Expert Opinions
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
Mortgage rates averaged 6.6% for 30-year, fixed-rate loans in the week ending Dec. 12, according to the latest Freddie Mac data. The financial markets expect the Fed will only lower rates twice in 2025. This is likely to push mortgage rates down, at least a little.
In our 2025 mortgage forecast, experts outlined a rough range between 5% and 7% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage. Most housing market forecasts predict rates landing around 6.4% at the end of the year.
NAHB: Rates Will Average 6.36% in 2025 and 5.93% in 2026. The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
By 2026, the federal funds rate is expected to fall further to 2.9%. Inflation forecasts have also been adjusted upward. Officials now project headline inflation to reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, compared to September's estimate of 2.1%.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
There is technically no limit to how many times you can refinance your home. If you meet the lender's qualifications and it makes financial sense for your situation, you can refinance as often as you wish. However, just because you have the option to refinance multiple times doesn't mean it's always a wise choice.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Fannie Mae expects rates to average 6.4% for the year. Wells Fargo projects a slight decline, with rates averaging around 6.3% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts rates will remain above 6% through 2025.
and then projects that mortgage interest rates – in particular the 30-year fixed rate, which is closely tied to the federal funds rate and the 10-year Treasury note yield – will remain elevated, and only decline 0.2 percent from 6.5 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2027.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC in 2023 that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
"While I'd love to say rates will drop below 6% in 2025, I think it's a moderate probability and not a certainty," says Steven Parangi, a licensed mortgage loan originator and owner of Alpine Mortgage Services.
Google search results for the term "assumable mortgage" spiked in May, following a steady upward trend starting in 2022. Mortgage assumptions allow buyers to take over an existing mortgage at its current rate, possibly securing mortgage rates as low as 2% or 3% depending on when the original mortgage was taken out.
The HousingWire forecast for mortgage rates in 2025 is a range between 5.75% and 7.25%. Some observers scoff at the wide 150 basis point range in our expectations for the year, as though it's a cop-out. But our take is that the market is starting high and there's a real risk of negative news that pushes rates above 7%.
But the shock change of heart thanks to better than expected results from November's inflation data released midweek does not mean that borrowers can now expect a flood of rate cuts this year, with ANZ predicting there will be just two in 2025, though NAB believes there will be five.
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
No one likes high interest rates, but they're not the end of the world. This is still a great time to buy a house—you'll just pay more than you would've a few years ago. It's also a good time to sell a house. And if you already have a fixed-rate mortgage locked in, you're in good shape too.
While it's a bummer of an answer, experts say it's unlikely consumers will see house prices drop meaningfully during 2024. Home prices will drop when a mixture of economic factors favorably collide — primarily lower interest rates and increased housing supply.
Fannie Mae's chief economist says, “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple of months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings.” They are putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in 2026.