Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025.
Key Takeaways
The Federal Reserve has pumped the brakes on potential interest rate cuts in 2025, which could affect your borrowing costs in the new year. Mortgage rates and car loans generally have lower interest rates than credit cards and personal loans.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation. This will allow the FED to start lowing the FED funds rates soon, most experts predict September will be the first cut.
By 2026, the federal funds rate is expected to fall further to 2.9%. Inflation forecasts have also been adjusted upward. Officials now project headline inflation to reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, compared to September's estimate of 2.1%.
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The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Oxford Economics is predicitng that base rate will eventually fall to 2.5 per cent in 2027 where it will broadly remain throughout 2028 and 2029.
So in 2025, expect modest declines in rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, according to Bankrate's chief financial analyst Greg McBride. “Even with those declines, we're not going back to a low-rate environment,” McBride said. “We're going from a high-rate environment to not as high.
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
Average personal loan rates started at 11.93% in 2024. Rates were relatively unchanged for most of 2024, ending the year at 12.29%. Personal loan rates may be headed lower in 2025, but you'll need good credit to snag the best rates.
The cost of borrowing: Banks borrow money from one another at an interest rate that is based on the federal funds rate. This cost is then passed on to the consumer—if the cost of borrowing money is high, then interest rates for personal loans will be even higher.
"As we look ahead into 2025, lower CD interest rates are a possibility," says Ben Alvarado, executive vice president at California Bank and Trust. After all, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate three times in 2024, and many analysts expect there to be at least two more Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Interest rate futures are contracts that allow buyers and sellers to lock in rates on an interest-bearing asset like a government bond or interbank lending rate. Although actual delivery of these assets doesn't occur, their value is tied to the underlying asset's price.
Drivers looking to lease a car in 2025 will be delighted to know that the price of auto leases could be on the decline. In 2024, car sales were down so automakers and dealerships could be looking to make back some money by lowering lease prices.
Used vehicle prices are expected to continue to stabilize in 2025, after several years of volatile pricing swings that began to normalize last year. Auto data and logistics firm Cox Automotive expects wholesale prices on its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index will end this year 1.4% higher than in December 2024.
Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 3.50 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.
Mortgage rates are expected to go down in 2025, but they'll probably remain elevated in the near term. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but another rate cut may not be coming for a few months. Plus, you can't — and shouldn't — always wait for interest rates to fall before you buy a home.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
Fannie Mae expects rates to average 6.4% for the year. Wells Fargo projects a slight decline, with rates averaging around 6.3% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts rates will remain above 6% through 2025.