We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
Historically, small cap stocks have generated higher returns than their larger peers over extended periods. That's because smaller businesses are earlier in their maturation and have more room to grow than larger companies.
Its analysts predict the S&P 500 will rise 12.6% to end 2025 at 6,666. Savita Subramanian, BofA's head of U.S. equity strategy, expects U.S. cyclical stocks to especially perform well. BMO Capital Markets forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 6,700, reflecting a gain of 13.2%.
Not only have small-cap stocks historically outperformed their larger peers, but they've done so strongly, by an annual average of more than 300 basis points (bps), and consistently, more than 69% of the time (Figure 1).
Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
Since the Russell 2000® began tracking the performance of small-cap stocks in 1979, the stock index has broadly matched, if not slightly exceeded, the performance of the venerable S&P 500® index of large-cap stocks (Figure 1).
Money invested over a longer-term can give higher returns than savings accounts, depending on interest rates, market conditions and risks. Benefits of investing: Potential to earn higher returns. Suitable for medium to long-term investments – 5 years or longer.
Rebound Potential: The initiation of rate cuts by central banks, signalling a move towards a more normalised interest rate environment, could reduce the performance gap between small and large cap stocks. This environment may favour small cap stocks, indicating a potential rebound.
Small-cap mutual funds perform well over a long period of time i:e over a period of 10yrs and above. However, over a short period of time, they tend to be very volatile, and you can hardly get any return or else even negative return.
As of October 19, 2024, the small cap index was overvalued at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 33.39, while the 3 year long term average stands at 24.49. But experts think there are certain sectors within the small cap that are fairly valued.
Small-cap mutual funds perform well over a long period of time. However, over a short period of time, they tend to be very volatile. So if you plan on withdrawing/redeeming your money from the mutual fund early, you could suffer losses. Sure, you could also make gains, but there is always the risk.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
2025 outlook: Small caps offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the robust US economy. Multiple favorable trends – including onshoring and increased CAPEX – may explain why Wall Street expects to see the strongest earnings gains come from small caps in 2025.
William Blair analysts call Vernova stock "a "top pick" for 2025, as artificial intelligence (AI) data centers consume vast amounts of energy. Wall Street expects Vernova earnings to boom 174% per share in the year ahead on 5% sales growth. GE Vernova stock flourishes a Composite Rating of 92 and RS Rating of 98.
If you have a greater risk tolerance and longer time horizons, small-cap stocks tend to outperform big-caps over time because they are able to grow more rapidly than larger companies. If you prefer stable appreciation and dividend income, big-caps may be more suitable.
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
The Invesco QQQ Trust is a go-to ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index. It's outperformed the S&P 500 in seven out of the last 10 years, all for a reasonable 0.2% expense ratio. It slightly trails the S&P's one-year return, but only slightly, and it thrashed the S&P in full-year 2023.
S&P 500 Index Versus Nasdaq 100 Performance
Nasdaq 100 has significantly outperformed S&P 500 in terms of performance. Over the past 15 years, Nasdaq 100 has delivered a CAGR of around 16%, while S&P 500 has returned about 8%.