NEW YORK (AP) — What a wonderful year 2024 has been for investors. U.S. stocks ripped higher and carried the S&P 500 to records as the economy kept growing and the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates.
Looking forward, analysts suggest that markets could remain weak until March, with stability expected to return around April. Emkay Global, in a recent note, projected that the Nifty could remain subdued, with a conservative target of 25,000 for 2025.
Other long-term forecasts, compiled by Morningstar, show U.S. equities returning between 4-7% on average over the next 10-15 years, with higher expectations for international stocks. In most cases, these predictions still see U.S. stocks outperforming U.S. corporate bonds.
MarketWatch reported that original top-down estimates for the S&P 500 in 2024 ranged from 4,200 at JPMorgan to 5,400 at Yardeni Research, with a median target of 5,000. The bottom-up price target for the S&P 500 was at 5,131.92 at the end of last year.
S&P 500 and sector total returns (including dividends)
The returns are as follows in this order: Cumulative bull market and 2024 annual. S&P 500: +70.1%, +25.0%. Communication Services +116.4%, +40.2%. Information Technology +129.9%, +36.6%.
Wall Street forecasts reviewed by CNN show that most strategists expect double-digit percentage growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, though more moderate than in 2024. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to rise 14.8% in 2025, according to FactSet.
$3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year. $36,000 / 6% dividend yield = $600,000. On the other hand, if you're more risk-averse and prefer a portfolio yielding 2%, you'd need to invest $1.8 million to reach the $3,000 per month target: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
For the second year in a row, S&P 500 stocks posted total returns in 2024 of over 25%. As was the case in 2023, technology-oriented stocks led the market last year.
The S&P 500 lost decade - 2000 to 2010
During this decade, S&P 500 investors had to deal with two market downturns - the aftermath of the .com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This led to the S&P 500 having a negative return over the decade (01/01/2000 - 31/12/2009).
Wall Street—as is its way—is expecting a solid, if unspectacular, year. Market strategists, on average, predict that the S&P 500 will hit around 6500 by the end of 2025, up 7% from a recent 6060, according to Bloomberg data.
As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).
The Indian stock markets will function normally on Makar Sankranti, January 14, 2025, as per the official NSE calendar.
What experts are predicting: They see the benchmark index climbing to just below 6,700 by the end of 2025, according to FactSet, for a gain of about 13 percent from Tuesday's close. If analysts' models are correct, it would mark a third consecutive year of double-digit annual gains for the S&P 500.
The main stock market index in the United States (US500) increased 1263 points or 26.48% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States.
The market is entering the final two trading days of 2024, and stocks are set to post another strong year of gains. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) once again led the charge in 2024, rising more than 30% thus far while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has risen over 25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is up a more modest 14%.
Invest in Dividend Stocks
Last but certainly not least, a stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income. However, at an example 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000, which is a substantial upfront investment.
Fixed Deposits (FDs): Safe but lower returns (7% return needs an 86 lakh investment for 50K monthly). Dividend Income: Invest in dividend-paying stocks (average 7% yield needs an 85 lakh investment for 50K monthly).
A $100,000 salary can yield a monthly income of $8,333.33, a biweekly paycheck of $3,846.15, a weekly income of $1,923.08, and a daily income of $384.62 based on 260 working days per year.
Let's say you want to become a millionaire in five years. If you're starting from scratch, online millionaire calculators (which return a variety of results given the same inputs) estimate that you'll need to save anywhere from $13,000 to $15,500 a month and invest it wisely enough to earn an average of 10% a year.
-- The "S&P 500 [will] end 2024 between 4,700 and 4,800." -- "Our year-end 2024 fair-value target range [is] 4,850 to 4,950." -- "Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4,940."
Anticipated 10-year annualized returns for U.S. equities fell 0.4 percentage points as of November 8, 2024, to a range of 2.8% to 4.8%, reflecting hefty valuations.
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Those of you that have flipped on CNBC either on purpose or by accident sometime in the past two years may know those companies as the so-called Magnificent Seven, or “Mag 7” in Wall Street-speak.