Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Fannie Mae's chief economist says, “Long-run interest rates have moved upward over the past couple of months following a string of continued strong economic data and disappointing inflation readings.” They are putting the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.5% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in 2026.
Mortgage rates averaged 6.6% for 30-year, fixed-rate loans in the week ending Dec. 12, according to the latest Freddie Mac data. The financial markets expect the Fed will only lower rates twice in 2025. This is likely to push mortgage rates down, at least a little.
Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025. But mortgage rates recently jumped back up toward 7%.
At its February 2024 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision supports progress of inflation to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range within a reasonable timeframe and continued moderate growth in employment.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.
and then projects that mortgage interest rates – in particular the 30-year fixed rate, which is closely tied to the federal funds rate and the 10-year Treasury note yield – will remain elevated, and only decline 0.2 percent from 6.5 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2027.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023 before descending somewhat in 2024. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2025. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Five-year fixes are cheapest – for now.
In normal times, interest rates tend to get more expensive the longer you fix your mortgage for. But for the past couple of years, interest rates on five-year fixes have often been cheaper than two year-fixes – with even some 10-year fixes beating two-year deals in recent times.
In fact, in March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that interest rates "will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw" during the financial crisis, suggesting that the economy can adapt to a more "neutral" benchmark rate range of between 2.4% to 3.8% in the long run, i.e., less tightening, but not too much ...
The lowest average mortgage rates on record came about when the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. As a result, the weekly average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 2.65%, while the average 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage sunk to 2.10%.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
More homes on the market in 2025 may create better opportunities for buyers. Higher inventory means fewer bidding wars, which may keep home prices more stable. Falling mortgage rates could also ease the cost of buying a home, though it may take time.
The HousingWire forecast for mortgage rates in 2025 is a range between 5.75% and 7.25%. Some observers scoff at the wide 150 basis point range in our expectations for the year, as though it's a cop-out. But our take is that the market is starting high and there's a real risk of negative news that pushes rates above 7%.
MBA now expects mortgage rates to range between 6.4% and 6.6% in 2025, while holding steady at 6.3% in 2026. In October, when there was more optimism about the pace of Fed rate cuts, the trade organization projected rates to be between 5.9% and 6.2% in 2025, and at 5.9% in 2026.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC in 2023 that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
There is technically no limit to how many times you can refinance your home. If you meet the lender's qualifications and it makes financial sense for your situation, you can refinance as often as you wish. However, just because you have the option to refinance multiple times doesn't mean it's always a wise choice.
Mortgage rates could see more volatility in 2025
Aside from typical day-to-day fluctuations, mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6.5% for the next few months. If inflation continues to cool and the Fed is able to carry out two 0.25% cuts, mortgage rates could inch down closer to 6.25% later in the year.
Mortgage rates work differently. Their movements are more closely tied to demand for government bonds. When demand for those increases, mortgage rates tend to fall. But thanks to strong economic growth in the pandemic era, demand for those bonds has weakened.
For only the third time in 2024, the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate. On Dec. 18, the Fed cut the rate, which influences interest on everything from car loans to credit cards, by 25 basis points. That takes it from 4.50% to 4.75% to 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest it's been since February 2023.
By the end of 2025, McBride predicts that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will fall 0.54 percentage point from its year-end 2024 level (7.04%).