Investing in small-cap stocks can be a good idea, especially when the economy is in recovery mode. In such periods, small-cap stocks frequently surpass larger ones owing to their greater potential for growth. However, they are also more volatile and can be riskier.
Small-cap valuations – Attractive
We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026. That is ahead of the long run rate of 13% growth (see Exhibit 3).
Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
Small-cap funds have enjoyed a record run in the past five years. The category has fetched 31% annualised returns, compared to 16% from large-cap funds. Investors continue to bet heavily on this space. Since 2019-20, the total inflow in small-cap funds has crossed Rs.1 lakh crore.
The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
2025 outlook: Small caps offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the robust US economy. Multiple favorable trends – including onshoring and increased CAPEX – may explain why Wall Street expects to see the strongest earnings gains come from small caps in 2025.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
Choppy markets singe large-caps
Typically, small-caps experience sharper declines during market corrections. Second, the weakness in the economy has started reflecting in the corporate earnings. India Inc's earnings show has been disappointing, resulting in earnings downgrades.
Inflation and small-cap performance through the decades
We found that the MSCI World Small Cap Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 0.47% per month in periods of low inflation (CPI < 2%) and by only 0.09% in periods of high inflation (CPI > 2%).
To find an appropriate investment mix for your time horizon, find your age and the corresponding portfolio allocation. A typical mixture could include 60% large-cap (established companies), 20% mid-cap/small-cap (small to medium-sized compa- nies), and 20% international (companies outside the U.S.) stocks.
Small-cap funds are riskier than large-cap funds and may not be suitable for everyone. Small-cap companies are more sensitive to market changes and can experience sudden and wide price fluctuations. Small-cap companies are less popular and smaller in size, making their stock less liquid.
Small-cap is not a bad thing, it is just that you should have the time-frame. If you're investing for any 10 year, small-cap will beat all other kinds of funds hands down, but if you are coming with a very short-term expectation, you will be very surprised in a very negative way.
Looking ahead, S&P 500 stocks are currently forecast to generate 13% EPS growth in 2025 and 13.1% growth in 2026 (versus 8.5% EPS growth in 2025), while the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is currently forecast to generate EPS growth of 20.9% in 2025 and 18.6% EPS growth in 2026 (versus minus 8.0% EPS growth in 2024), according ...
In July 2024, U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks after lagging for the first half of the year, driven by a cooler inflation report and improved market sentiment.
Regardless of the economic climate, investors need emergency savings to cover expenses in the event of a job loss or other unexpected bills, experts say. However, savings benchmarks can depend on your family's circumstances.
On average, small-caps have an advantage when the U.S. economy is in recovery mode. It's typically a great time to invest in small-cap stocks when the economy is rebounding, unemployment rates are decreasing quickly, and businesses are seeing strong earnings growth. Of course, small-cap stocks don't always outperform.
Small-cap mutual funds are ideal for you if you have an investment horizon of five years and above, as small-cap stocks are volatile in the short term, and small-cap funds perform better in the long term.
Small-Cap Stocks Outlook for 2025
Lee pointed out that 2025 is going to be a good year for small and mid-cap stocks. Backed by interest rate cuts and the incoming administration, companies are going to be expansionary and feel confident about mergers, added Lee.
Market experts recommend that investors hold small caps for at least 10 years to benefit and allocate 8% of the portfolio to small caps. But this is entirely subject to the risk appetite and investment goals of the investor.