Nvidia (NVDA) stock could fall to $65 (a ~50% drop from recent $130+ levels) if the AI bubble bursts, causing investors to drastically lower valuation multiples from ~40x to below 20x forward earnings. This scenario would be driven by a sharp slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, increased competition from AMD/custom chips, and declining, heavily pressured margins.
Out of 48 analysts, 43 rate Nvidia as a Buy or Strong Buy, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term prospects. The average 12-month price target sits around 209.97 dollars, with projections ranging from 100 dollars on the low end to 250 dollars on the high end.
Nvidia's stock dropped 4.4% amid broader market concerns and doubts about the future of the artificial intelligence boom.
If current growth rates continue, then Nvidia will do well for shareholders in 2026. But eventually, the AI computer chip supply will start to match demand, as it does in any spending supercycle. This will lower Nvidia's revenue growth rate, and could make it even turn negative for a short while.
From $5,000 to nearly $1 million in a decade
This amount assumes you reinvested the modest dividends Nvidia pays.
The most obvious risk investors should be mindful of is a possible downturn in the AI market, which could pressure demand and revenue for Nvidia. This revolutionary technology continues to show promise, but so much capital has quickly flowed into the industry that a slowdown wouldn't be surprising.
Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis favors Broadcom, Nvidia, and Marvell Technology among chip stocks for 2026, with “Buy” ratings. Curtis raised Nvidia's price target to $275 from $250, and set targets of $500 for Broadcom and $120 for Marvell.
Despite the company's size-related challenges, Nvidia stock is a buy now. None of the challenges it faces changes the fact that it's the leading company in the critical AI accelerator market.
No, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway do not directly own Nvidia (NVDA) stock, sticking to his value investing principles, but they have gained indirect exposure and profits through large holdings in S&P 500 index funds (like SPY and VOO) that contain Nvidia due to its high market cap, and by investing heavily in companies like Alphabet (Google) that are major buyers of Nvidia's AI chips, making it a proxy for the AI boom.
Nvidia's monster gains are hard to fathom
Nvidia shares have produced a total return of 1,360% in the past five years (as of Jan. 16). This impressive gain would've turned a $1,000 starting capital outlay into $14,590 today.
What Will NVIDIA Stock Be Worth in 2025? Analysts forecast that NVIDIA's stock price will remain around $210-$220 by the end of 2025. Growth to these levels is expected to be supported by continued advancements in AI and data centres.
Predicting Nvidia's (NVDA) price in five years involves massive potential, with analyst targets ranging from the low thousands to potentially over $3,000 per share in base/best cases, driven by AI dominance and massive data center investment, while some projections suggest multi-trillion dollar market caps, but risks like increased competition and economic shifts could temper gains, making $1,300 - $3,115 a common 5-year price range in bullish scenarios.
Nvidia is forecast to deliver impressive growth yet again in 2026. Nebius Group should put up remarkable growth this year. The Trade Desk is set to bounce back in 2026.
If you don't have enough exposure to Nvidia in your portfolio, it's not too late to buy. However, if you don't want to invest in Nvidia separately, it's a large part of some common indexes, so buying into funds that track them would also add meaningful exposure.
NVIDIA does nearly $100 billion per year in profit, and that's with profit growing at 65% year over year. It's a pretty impressive company. Despite all that, top NVIDIA shareholders have been selling their NVIDIA stock lately, with Stanley Druckenmiller being one known billionaire seller.
The bad news is that if recent history is any guide, Nvidia's stock is more likely than not to crash again in 2026. However, there's also good news for investors. For one thing, the factors behind Nvidia's steep declines in previous years don't appear to be present now. The data center market remains strong.
The 7% sell rule is a stock trading guideline to cut losses quickly, advising you to sell a stock if it drops 7-8% below your purchase price to protect capital, remove emotion, and prevent small losses from becoming catastrophic, a strategy popularized by William O'Neil's CAN SLIM method for growth investing. It assumes that truly strong stocks typically don't fall much below their buy point, so a dip signals something is wrong, requiring you to exit the trade to preserve funds for better opportunities.