The overall quality of publicly traded small caps has deteriorated, as private sponsors help top performers stay private for longer. Instead of small caps, investors should consider actively adding exposure to U.S. large-cap value and mid-cap growth stocks.
Small-cap mutual funds are extremely risky investments. This means that investing in them could result in short-term losses. Small-cap funds should be avoided if you cannot tolerate seeing negative returns on your investments at times. It is best for new investors to begin investing in other category mutual funds.
In July 2024, U.S. small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks after lagging for the first half of the year, driven by a cooler inflation report and improved market sentiment.
We expect small-cap earnings growth could exceed that of large-cap stocks in 2025, aided by easier earnings comparisons.
Most investors think smaller companies underperform in a recession. In most cases, they are correct. However, what's less well-known is that small caps usually exit recessions quicker than assumed – outperforming large caps. This rebound can begin as early as three months into an economic downturn.
With small-cap mutual funds, always opt to invest for the long Term. Therefore, the minimum period for which you should be investing in small-cap mutual funds is 5-6 years. As mentioned earlier, small-cap mutual funds tend to be very volatile. For example, they may go up and down in the short Term.
As of October 19, 2024, the small cap index was overvalued at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) of 33.39, while the 3 year long term average stands at 24.49. But experts think there are certain sectors within the small cap that are fairly valued.
While small caps have historically outperformed their large-cap brethren in periods when annual inflation has exceeded 1%, the higher interest rates that come when central banks try to reduce high inflation can be challenging for small companies.
Small-cap funds are riskier than large-cap funds and may not be suitable for everyone. Small-cap companies are more sensitive to market changes and can experience sudden and wide price fluctuations. Small-cap companies are less popular and smaller in size, making their stock less liquid.
We expect earnings to drive the next leg higher for small-cap share prices. Analysts are looking for robust earnings growth: 15% this year, and by over 30% in 2025 and 2026. That is ahead of the long run rate of 13% growth (see Exhibit 3).
Kotak Small Cap Fund and Axis Small Cap Fund gave 29.08% and 28.43% returns respectively in 2024. Quant Small Cap Fund offered a 28.34% return in the mentioned period. Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund gave a 26.31% return in the said period.
The recommended time frame is eight to ten years. Making these funds highly suitable for long-term investors.
Small-caps are making a comeback in 2024, with the Russell 2000 index up 17% this year, though it still lags the S&P 500.
Small-cap is not a bad thing, it is just that you should have the time-frame. If you're investing for any 10 year, small-cap will beat all other kinds of funds hands down, but if you are coming with a very short-term expectation, you will be very surprised in a very negative way.
Given the changing macroeconomic backdrop, we outline why we see potential value for investors in small caps in 2024. The consensus is that interest rates look to have peaked, with markets now pricing in cuts across many major economies in 2024, something which could prove beneficial to small caps.
The declines in some pockets of smallcaps are due to factors such as reduced liquidity from restricting margin trading facility (MTF) position, valuation adjustments, or slowing earnings momentum.
The small-cap funds saw an average return of 25.69% from December 2023 to December 2024, while mid-cap and large-cap funds yielded returns of 26.91% and 14.97% during the same period. So far, the Sensex has gained 8.92% and the Nifty has risen 9.49% in 2024.
Investing in small caps during recessions has generated superior investment returns, according to our back-testing of the data to the late 1980s (see Table 1, below).
On average, small-caps have an advantage when the U.S. economy is in recovery mode. It's typically a great time to invest in small-cap stocks when the economy is rebounding, unemployment rates are decreasing quickly, and businesses are seeing strong earnings growth. Of course, small-cap stocks don't always outperform.
Small caps can diversify portfolios and bring higher growth potential — albeit with higher risks. However, the value of small-cap stocks grew more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year, buoyed in part by the Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.