Based on total return, the average stock market return is about 13% over the past 10 years. Since 1965, the S&P 500 has provided annualized total returns of 10.2% through 2023, according to data compiled by Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).
Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 10 Years
The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 13.316% over the last 10 years, as of the end of December 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 10.021%.
Its analysts predict the S&P 500 will rise 12.6% to end 2025 at 6,666. Savita Subramanian, BofA's head of U.S. equity strategy, expects U.S. cyclical stocks to especially perform well. BMO Capital Markets forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 6,700, reflecting a gain of 13.2%.
Many experts are a bit more conservative with their projections. For example, for 2024-2033, Charles Schwab projects that U.S. large-cap stocks will average 6.2% compounding returns, U.S. small company stocks will return 6.3%, and international large caps will average 7.6%.
In particular, consider the remarkable gains in the S&P 500 Index, which was on track to close up more than 25% for 2024, well ahead of Wall Street analysts' forecasts, in one of its strongest annual performances of the last quarter-century.
A good return on investment is generally considered to be around 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, adjusted for inflation. The average return of the U.S. stock market is around 10% per year, adjusted for inflation, dating back to the late 1920s.
There are two general periods where stocks realized a negative return over a 10-year span: one during the Great Depression in the 1930s and the other during the Great Recession in 2008.
$3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year. $36,000 / 6% dividend yield = $600,000. On the other hand, if you're more risk-averse and prefer a portfolio yielding 2%, you'd need to invest $1.8 million to reach the $3,000 per month target: $3,000 X 12 months = $36,000 per year.
S&P 500 Investment Time Machine
Imagine you put $1,000 into either fund 10 years ago. You'd be up to roughly 126.4% — or $3,282 — from VOO and 126.9% — or $3,302 — from SPY. That's not exactly wealthy, but it shows how you can more than triple your money by holding an asset with relatively low long-term risk.
Buy $4000 worth of goods at wholesale, resell them with a 150% markup. Pay your taxes. Done. Invest some of the money in tools and supplies and provide a service.
Invest in Dividend Stocks
Last but certainly not least, a stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income. However, at an example 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000, which is a substantial upfront investment.
While the term good is subjective, many professionals consider a good ROI to be 10.5% or greater for investments in stocks. This number is the standard because it's the average return of the S&P 500 , an index that serves as a benchmark of the overall performance of the U.S. stock market.
Historically, the average stock market return is about 10% per year as measured by the S&P 500 stock market index. While this number can give you a general sense of how the stock market may perform over time, additional context is helpful for understanding what it means for your investments.
Their partnership in managing Berkshire produced arguably the most remarkable extended performance for investors ever recorded. Since they began operating Berkshire in 1965, the stock has risen at an annualized pace of 19.8%. The S&P 500 has had an annualized return of 10.2% during the same timeframe.
If you put it in a high-yield savings account with an interest rate of 4%, you'd earn $20,000 per year. However, if you invest it in the stock market, which has historically returned about 7% annually on average, you could potentially make around $35,000 per year.
The 3 5 7 rule is a risk management strategy in trading that emphasizes limiting risk on each individual trade to 3% of the trading capital, keeping overall exposure to 5% across all trades, and ensuring that winning trades yield at least 7% more profit than losing trades.
Rowe Price has a model that's closer to this more modern version of allocation, recommending that investors in their 60s have 45% to 65% in stocks, with 30% to 50% in bonds and 0% to 10% in cash. Charles Schwab recommends an allocation of 60% stocks, 35% bonds and 5% in cash for investors ages 60-69.
Higher-risk investments like stocks have historically doubled money faster (around seven years) compared with lower-risk options like bonds (around 12 years). The rule provides an estimate, not a guarantee, since actual investment returns vary year to year.
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
As shown below, the S&P 500 was up more than 23% in 2024, bested by both the Nasdaq (up nearly 29%) and the Nasdaq 100 (up nearly 25%). Those gains were boosted by the Magnificent 7 group of stocks (up nearly 67%) along with a handful of other mega-cap stocks (more on that below).