Seek Out Core Sector Stocks
If you want to insulate yourself during a recession partly with stocks, consider investing in the healthcare, utilities and consumer goods sectors. People are still going to spend money on medical care, household items, electricity and food, regardless of the state of the economy.
Stocks and bonds have relatively low transaction costs, allow you to diversify more easily and leave your cash more liquid than real estate (although the stock market is typically more volatile than the housing market). Meanwhile, real estate is a hedge against inflation and has tax advantages.
Examples of recession-proof assets include cash and cash-equivalent investments, such as three-month U.S. Treasury bills, while examples of recession-proof industries are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare, among others.
Options to consider include federal bond funds, municipal bond funds, taxable corporate funds, money market funds, dividend funds, utilities mutual funds, large-cap funds, and hedge funds.
For nonretirees, that means setting aside three to six months' worth of living expenses in a relatively safe, liquid account—such as an interest-bearing checking account, money market savings account, money market fund, or short-term CD—plus enough cash to cover any upcoming sizable expenses, such as tuition payments.
What Are the Biggest Risks to Avoid During a Recession? Many types of financial risks are heightened in a recession. This means that you're better off avoiding some risks that you might take in better economic times—such as co-signing a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt.
In a recession, it's smart to preserve your capital by investing in safer assets, such as bonds, particularly government bonds, which can perform well during economic downturns.
“The demand for travel and hospitality services typically declines as consumers cut back on discretionary spending,” Sarib Rehman, CEO of Flipcost, said. “To attract customers, airlines, hotels and travel agencies often lower their prices and offer more promotions.”
Ongoing stock market volatility and record inflation are fueling predictions of a recession. If the predictions are correct, both businesses and individuals will be looking to protect their liquidity and financial security. And one way to accomplish that is by having cash on hand.
Best Investments During a Recession
Multifamily real estate tends to outperform other asset classes despite economic swings. As noted above, demand for multifamily often increases during a recession as homeowners are displaced and forced back into the rental market.
"Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty due to its perceived store of value," Collins says. "During recessions, gold prices may rise as investors look for ways to protect their wealth from market volatility."
The Bottom Line
CDs are a comparatively safe investment. They can provide a stable income regardless of stock market conditions when they're managed properly. Always consider emergency money that you might need in the future when you're thinking of purchasing a CD or starting a CD ladder.
“While it can be tempting to withdraw all your funds from a bank and keep them at home, banks are typically more secure and offer protection against theft or loss. Plus, keeping money in a bank allows for easier access to funds if needed for emergency expenses or unexpected bills.”
The industries known to fare better during recessions are generally those that supply the population with essentials we can't live without. They include utilities, healthcare, consumer staples, and, in some pundits' opinions, maybe even technology.
“Holding cash during times of economic uncertainty, like a potential recession, can feel reassuring because it offers liquidity and a sense of control,” said Adam Paoli, the lead financial planner at Coltiva Wealth.
Investing during a recession means buying undervalued assets for potential gains when the economy rebounds. Choose assets like government bonds, utility stocks, healthcare, and consumer staples for stability and security during economic downturns.
Recessions have plenty of negative consequences, but they can provide a necessary reset for the markets. Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers.
Like candy, cigarette sales skyrocketed during the Great Depression, and tobacco stocks are still a smart buy in any recession [source: Gibbons]. Share prices of tobacco companies grow 4 percent a year on average whether it's a recession or a boom year [source: Wachman].
An emergency fund of six months will help you face potential financial hardships. In addition, during recessions, people with access to cash are in a better position to take advantage of investment opportunities that can significantly improve their finances long-term.
For workers and households, the picture was less rosy. Unemployment was at 5% at the end of 2007, reached a high of 10% in October 2009, and did not recover to 5% until 2015, nearly eight years after the beginning of the recession. Real median household income did not recover to pre-recession levels until 2016.
During a recession, economic activity slows. When consumers spend less, the demand for goods and services falls. Once that happens, prices tend to drop, slowing down inflation.