The 4.28% composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2024 through October 2024 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 1.30% fixed rate of return with the 2.96% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
The current spread is about negative 45 basis points, or 0.45%. If the federal funds rate hits a low of 3.75% to 4.0% in this cycle, which is what the market is currently discounting, then it wouldn't be surprising to see 10-year yields near 5% at some point in 2025 (4% plus 94 basis points = 4.94%).
After 14 months of stagnancy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate three times in 2024, ending the year with a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest since February 2023.
At an initial rate of 3.11%, buying an I bond today gets roughly 1% less compared to the 4.26% 12-month Treasury Bill rate (December 20, 2024). You could say that buying an I Bond right now is a 'fair deal' historically compared to 2021 & 2022 when I Bond rates were much higher than comparable interest rate products.
Currently, Treasuries maturing in less than a year yield more than CDs. However, at maturities of one year and beyond, CDs yield a little more before taxes. Therefore, all things considered, it likely makes more sense to choose Treasuries over CDs for shorter-term investments, but it depends on your situation.
Research Affiliates' 10-year US market return expectations declined, from a 4% nominal return projection for US large caps at the end of 2023 to 3.4% at year-end 2024. The firm is expecting US aggregate bonds to outperform stocks over the next decade, and its expected volatility for bonds is also substantially lower.
While shorter-term bond yields have declined significantly since 2023, yields on longer-term bonds are trending higher as 2024 ends. Investors appear focused less on recent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, and more on continued solid economic data and inflation trends.
"If the 10-year treasury rate goes up, mortgage rates go up as well, so the investment in mortgages is still an attractive option compared to investing in treasuries. Conversely, if treasury rates go down, mortgage rates will decrease." Find out the best mortgage rates you could qualify for here.
Unlike I-bonds, TIPS are marketable securities and can be resold on the secondary market before maturity. When the TIPS matures, if the principal is higher than the original amount, you get the higher amount. If the principal is equal to or lower than the original amount, you get the higher original amount.
November 1, 2024. Series EE savings bonds issued November 2024 through April 2025 will earn an annual fixed rate of 2.60% and Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 3.11%, a portion of which is indexed to inflation every six months.
I Bonds offer a secure way to protect savings from inflation while earning a modest return. They may be particularly appealing to those seeking safety and government backing, as well as tax advantages. However, purchase limits, early withdrawal penalties and a long maturity period may make them less attractive to some.
We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.
One-year minimum holding period: You cannot redeem I Bonds until you've held them for at least 12 months. Penalties for early redemption: If you redeem your bonds within the first five years, you'll forfeit the last three months of interest. However, after five years, you can redeem your bonds without any penalties.
Maturity dates for Series EE bonds
Although they technically mature after 20 years, these bonds actually don't expire for 30 years. You'll keep earning interest for an extra decade. As long as you cash in your bond at the maturity date, you can guarantee your investment will double.
The interest you earn on EE savings bonds is subject to federal income, gift, estate, and excise taxes but is exempt from state and local income taxes. The taxation depends on who owns the bond, even if the ownership is split amongst individuals.
After 20 years, the Patriot Bond is guaranteed to be worth at least face value. So a $50 Patriot Bond, which was bought for $25, will be worth at least $50 after 20 years. It can continue to accrue interest for as many as 10 more years after that.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.
By 2026, the federal funds rate is expected to fall further to 2.9%. Inflation forecasts have also been adjusted upward. Officials now project headline inflation to reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, compared to September's estimate of 2.1%.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.