The December I bond composite rate is 3.11% (US Treasury). The December I Bond Fixed Rate is 1.20%. The December 2024 I Bond inflation rate is 1.90%.
While shorter-term bond yields have declined significantly since 2023, yields on longer-term bonds are trending higher as 2024 ends. Investors appear focused less on recent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, and more on continued solid economic data and inflation trends.
•
The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Investment strategists surveyed by Bankrate see the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.14 percent at the end of December 2025. That's up from the third-quarter 2024 prediction of 3.53 percent, but still slightly under 4.53 percent, the current trailing-12-month yield of the 10-year Treasury.
The average interest rates for 91-day, 182-day, and 364-day Treasury bills increased to 16.50 percent, 16.65 percent and 16.84 percent in April, 2024 from 16.14 percent, 16.18 percent and 16.36 percent in March 2024, respectively as shown in Chart 5.
The fed funds target rate is now set at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed held rates at 5.25% to 5.50% from July 2023 to September 2024. Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed raised rates eleven times, from near 0%. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, December 18, 2024.
Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025. That contrasts with longer term mortgage rates holding at historically low levels of between 2% and 3% for much of 2020 and 2021.
At its February 2024 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision supports progress of inflation to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range within a reasonable timeframe and continued moderate growth in employment.
Which bank gives the highest interest rate on FD? As of 2024, Canara Bank offers the highest interest rate of 7.25% for 444 days.
A combination of yields that are near multi-decade highs and interest rates that are expected to gradually fall through 2025 is creating an attractive opportunity for bond investors in the new year.
The firm is expecting better returns—albeit with higher volatility—from lower-quality bonds: a range of 5.3%-6.3% for US high-yield bonds and 5%-6% for emerging-markets sovereign bonds.
The 4.28% composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2024 through October 2024 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 1.30% fixed rate of return with the 2.96% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Must I pay tax on what the bond earns? You choose whether to report each year's earnings or wait to report all the earnings when you get the money for the bond. If you use the money for qualified higher education expenses, you may not have to pay tax on the earnings.
However, interest rates predictions are difficult as any further cuts depend on factors such as what happens with inflation. So predictions will have to be revised. For example, in January 2024, Capital Economics forecast that interest rates would be reduced to 4.00% by the end of 2024.
"As we look ahead into 2025, lower CD interest rates are a possibility," says Ben Alvarado, executive vice president at California Bank and Trust. After all, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate three times in 2024, and many analysts expect there to be at least two more Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Expert Projections of Interest Rates in the Next Few Years
According to the St. Louis Fed, interest rates in the coming years are expected to be: 2025: 3.4% 2026: 2.9%
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
Fixed income markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025, but not by much. Short-term interest rates are expected to end 2025 close to 4%. That's down from the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as of January 2025. This is after the Fed cut rates in December 2024.
The fed funds rate has never been as high as it was in the 1980s. The main reason is because the Fed wanted to combat inflation, which soared in 1980 to its highest level on record: 14.6 percent.