2021: The lowest 30-year mortgage rates ever
And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021.
Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025. But mortgage rates recently jumped back up toward 7%.
"While I'd love to say rates will drop below 6% in 2025, I think it's a moderate probability and not a certainty," says Steven Parangi, a licensed mortgage loan originator and owner of Alpine Mortgage Services.
After 14 months of stagnancy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate three times in 2024, ending the year with a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the lowest since February 2023.
Reduce your loan term
Making the equivalent of two extra mortgage payments per year, for example, will knock off 9 years and 4 months from the total term of your loan. A shorter mortgage term also means that you'll own your house outright sooner.
The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
Why mortgage rates won't drop to 2% again. Again, when mortgage rates hit record lows early in the pandemic, the federal funds rate was near zero. Barring another major economic shock, the Fed projects that the federal funds rate will only take modest adjustments downward over the next several years.
Mortgage rates have tended to fall in response to recent recessions.
The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
Runaway Inflation Kills Housing
The Fed funds rate, which is the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, hit 20 percent in 1980, and 21 percent in June 1981. The cause was an inflationary spiral brought on by rising oil prices, government overspending and rising wages.
Not only is 96% of mortgage debt in the U.S. fixed rate, but 38.5% of homeowners don't have a mortgage at all.
You decide to increase your monthly payment by $1,000. With that additional principal payment every month, you could pay off your home nearly 16 years faster and save almost $156,000 in interest.
It suggests that homeowners who can afford substantial extra payments can pay off a 30-year mortgage in 15 years by making a weekly extra payment, equal to 10% of their monthly mortgage payment, toward the principal.
If done right, making biweekly mortgage payments leads to less interest paid over the life of your loan, saving you money and whittling your balance down sooner. However, you must confirm that the extra payments are being applied to the principal and that you're not subject to prepayment penalties.
At its February 2024 meeting, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision supports progress of inflation to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range within a reasonable timeframe and continued moderate growth in employment.
He expects mortgage rates to end 2025 around 6.5 percent. The housing market has been stuck for years, with mortgage rates rising rapidly in 2022 and 2023, peaking close to 8 percent.
The current Bank of America, N.A. prime rate is 7.50% (rate effective as of December 19, 2024).
Current Forecasts and Expert Opinions
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.