The 2025 outlook for palladium shows a market experiencing significant volatility and a potential recovery, with prices starting low near $900-$1,000 per ounce but demonstrating potential to rally as the year progresses due to tight supply constraints and a possible reversal of automotive substitution. Analysts anticipate an average price around $1,106/oz for 2025, with potential to end the year higher as market deficits persist.
BullionVault's palladium forecast reports that its user survey indicates a December 2026 price expectation of around $1,689 per ounce. This compares with an LBMA analysts' 2025 average of $991 and a December 2025 LBMA average of $1,586.
In 2025, the palladium price soared by more than 83 percent as of mid-December on supportive demand signals from slowing electric vehicle (EV) adoption trends and concerns about Russian supply reliability. The price of the metal reached a year-to-date high of US$1,675.50 per ounce on December 17.
On Friday, January 9, the bank's analysts lifted the 2026 platinum forecast to $2,450 an ounce from $1,825, and the palladium forecast to $1,725 an ounce from $1,525.
Palladium is expected to trade at 1879.27 USD/t oz. by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2123.50 in 12 months time.
Should You Own Palladium? Palladium may be a worthwhile addition to your precious metal holdings, but it depends on your investment goals. Some people build entire precious metals portfolios without any exposure to palladium, while others find it a valuable inclusion.
Supply Constraints Add to Bullish Outlook
Russian mining powerhouse Nornickel, responsible for the bulk of global palladium production, expects a 200,000-ounce deficit in 2025 when including investment demand. For 2026, the company projects a 100,000-ounce shortfall, excluding investments.
With the market's impressive supply and demand fundamentals, and growing prospects for a potential supply squeeze in the years ahead, an investment in palladium bullion may be one of the best bets now and in the future.
Nvidia is forecast to deliver impressive growth yet again in 2026. Nebius Group should put up remarkable growth this year. The Trade Desk is set to bounce back in 2026.
In many industries, palladium is thought of as a substitute for platinum because of its greater abundance. Although the actual amount of available palladium is unclear, palladium is historically a greater bargain when buying for industrial purposes, as it has previously sold for nearly half as much as platinum.
The automotive sector is the primary end user of palladium. The metal is a key component in the catalytic convertors of internal combustion engine vehicles, where it is used to reduce emissions. Like platinum, palladium is used in jewelry and valued as an investment.
Palladium has one notable characteristic working in its favor compared to other precious metals. It's much rarer than gold or silver, which can potentially drive up the price through imbalances in supply and demand. The downside, however, is that palladium prices tend to be more volatile than gold or silver prices.
Of the two metals, platinum is stronger than palladium, but again both metals are strong enough to be used for engagement rings or wedding rings that are worn daily.
Acute and Chronic Effects: Palladium metal is relatively inert, however exposure to palladium particulate may cause an allergic reaction in susceptible individuals.
A major source of health concern is the sensitization risk of Pd as very low doses are sufficient to cause allergic reactions in susceptible individuals. Persons with known nickel allergy may be especially susceptible. Workers occupationally exposed to Pd include miners, dental technicians and chemical workers.
China is the world's largest consumer of platinum group metals, but is highly dependent on imports, exposing domestic companies to risks from international price swings and supply chain insecurity. Imports of platinum and palladium reached 91.1 tons last year, accounting for 71 percent of the country's total supply.