What experts are predicting: They see the benchmark index climbing to just below 6,700 by the end of 2025, according to FactSet, for a gain of about 13 percent from Tuesday's close. If analysts' models are correct, it would mark a third consecutive year of double-digit annual gains for the S&P 500.
Many experts are a bit more conservative with their projections. For example, for 2024-2033, Charles Schwab projects that U.S. large-cap stocks will average 6.2% compounding returns, U.S. small company stocks will return 6.3%, and international large caps will average 7.6%.
Morningstar Multi-Asset Research (MAR) (not public-facing)
MAR's outlook for non-US stocks is substantially better than its case for US stocks. While the 10-year return expectation for US stocks is just 5.6%, it's 9.6% for non-US developed-markets stocks and 11% for emerging-markets equities.
Key Takeaways
The stock market could see a cooling-off in 2025, led by tech firms, amid worries over AI adoption. Interest rates could decline less aggressively, settling into a range of 3.5-4%, making room for a recalibration of long-term interest rates to between 4.5% and 5%, or even higher.
For stock investors, 2024 was an expectedly great year. Behind the continued bull market for stocks was solid economic growth, falling inflation, Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, and healthy corporate earnings.
William Blair analysts call Vernova stock "a "top pick" for 2025, as artificial intelligence (AI) data centers consume vast amounts of energy. Wall Street expects Vernova earnings to boom 174% per share in the year ahead on 5% sales growth. GE Vernova stock flourishes a Composite Rating of 92 and RS Rating of 98.
Magnificent Seven Stocks: Nvidia Slides, Tesla Reverses Higher; Apple Continues To Sell Off. Dubbed the Magnificent Seven stocks, Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla lived up to their name in 2024 with solid gains.
Shares of Toast climbed 100% in 2024, handily outpacing the S&P 500 index. Toast wasn't the only stock that doubled in value in 2024. Shares of Revolve (NYSE: RVLV) and On Holding (NYSE: ONON) also doubled last year, climbing 102% and 103%, respectively.
“COST/AMZN/WMT—aka 'The Big Three' will likely gobble ~60%+ of U.S. retail growth this year, so we see Costco's elite share gain as likely to sustain outperformance.” Most of the Street sides with Melich, with 58% of analysts rating Costco stock a Buy, 37% a Hold, and 5% Sell, according to FactSet.
The market is in a holding pattern, but there is good news
Overall, Realtor.com economists expect 2025 to bring slightly lower mortgage rates coupled with moderate price growth, which means that would-be buyers are not likely to see any dramatic changes in housing costs.
If you're taking a long-term perspective on the stock market and are properly diversifying your portfolio, it's almost always a good time to invest. That's because the market tends to go up over time, and time in the market is more important than timing the market, as the old saying goes.
The main stock market index in the United States (US500) increased 1263 points or 26.48% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States.
That leads to a natural follow-up question: Is a recession likely in 2025? The consensus among economists is "no." We've already seen the New York Fed's calculated probability of 33.6% that a recession could come over the next 12 months. This estimate implies a nearly two-thirds chance a recession isn't on the way.
In particular, consider the remarkable gains in the S&P 500 Index, which was on track to close up more than 25% for 2024, well ahead of Wall Street analysts' forecasts, in one of its strongest annual performances of the last quarter-century.
Anticipated 10-year annualized returns for U.S. equities fell 0.4 percentage points as of November 8, 2024, to a range of 2.8% to 4.8%, reflecting hefty valuations.