Its analysts predict the S&P 500 will rise 12.6% to end 2025 at 6,666. Savita Subramanian, BofA's head of U.S. equity strategy, expects U.S. cyclical stocks to especially perform well. BMO Capital Markets forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 6,700, reflecting a gain of 13.2%.
That leads to a natural follow-up question: Is a recession likely in 2025? The consensus among economists is "no." We've already seen the New York Fed's calculated probability of 33.6% that a recession could come over the next 12 months. This estimate implies a nearly two-thirds chance a recession isn't on the way.
While the average bull market lasts around 1,000 days, some go on for far longer. For example, one of the more recent surges between 2009 and 2020 lasted for nearly 4,000 days. So there's always a chance that we could have several more years ahead of us before the next slump begins.
2024 in review: A "Goldilocks" year for US stock returns
While 2023 was a year of frustration, as many missed the 26% rally, 2024 was one of ebullience and momentum—at least toward the end. The market set new all-time highs in January, which turned out to be a bullish omen that the market would gain momentum.
Follow the market momentum
This means that it's possible to incur losses on a bull position in a bull market, or make a profit on a sell position. Therefore, it's essential to analyse the goings-on of a bull trend comprehensively before making a move, whilst taking action timeously.
Bulls, much like cows, can live ten to twelve years. Most bulls will remain active in the herd for closer to four or five years due to feet and leg, structural, and fertility problems, temperament concerns, or injuries. The decision to cull many bulls happens in the spring after failing a breeding soundness exam.
Recession fears for 2025 are fading fast, with market models and economist forecasts signaling a slim chance of economic contraction.
Lasting from December 2007 to June 2009, this economic downturn was the longest since World War II. The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, which makes it the longest recession since World War II. Beyond its duration, the Great Recession was notably severe in several respects.
Economist Claudia Sahm created a real-time indicator in 2019 that is used by many economists and. policymakers to identify whether the economy may be in a recession. The Sahm rule is triggered when the. three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more.
In particular, consider the remarkable gains in the S&P 500 Index, which was on track to close up more than 25% for 2024, well ahead of Wall Street analysts' forecasts, in one of its strongest annual performances of the last quarter-century.
Since 1950, the average bull market for the S&P 500 has lasted five and a half years, according to Carson Investment Research. The dot-com bubble that ended in 2000 was the longest, lasting more than 12 years and resulting in a staggering 582% gain.
In general, if you had to choose one, bull markets are a better time to invest. Yes, stock prices are higher, but it's a less risky investment time. You'll have a greater chance of selling assets for a higher value than when you bought them.
Investors who want to benefit from a bull market should buy early to take advantage of rising prices and sell them when they've reached their peak. Of course, it is hard to determine when the bottom and peak will take place.
But by the time a bull market gets to its current age, the chances a correction will occur in the next 12 months jump to 75%. There is some good news, though. If the bull can survive 2025, chances are it has plenty of room to run. Paulsen says the average bull market lasted just over five years.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Nvidia is currently worth $3.4 trillion, but Amazon and Alphabet could surpass its market value before year-end in 2025. Amazon is well positioned to monetize artificial intelligence (AI) due to its leadership in cloud infrastructure and platform services.