New car prices will likely fall in 2024 “Most consumers are looking for low APRs with longer loan terms, so the growth in those loans is helpful to lure consumers who have been sitting out," Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds, said in the report.
Improvements in the supply chain ought to bolster inventory, while interest rate cuts are on the horizon. "It's going to be a much better time for a consumer to buy a car in 2024 versus this year," said Paul Waatti, an industry analyst at market research firm AutoPacific.
Car Prices Will Likely Continue To Decrease
“Last month, the average price for a new vehicle was [$47,936] — a [1.4%] dip from last year, according to the latest KBB data. This suggests that new car prices might drop in 2024.” One factor that could lead to price drops is an oversupply of new cars.
"2024 is probably the best year since the pandemic to buy a new car," Mark Schirmer, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, told ABC News. "2021 and 2022 were really difficult years. Dealers are talking about discounts again ... this was not happening 18 months ago.
McBride shares that while the high-rate environment will persist, rates will ease for most borrowers in 2024. Increased competition between lenders may help drivers secure a good rate. However, he warns, “don't expect auto loan rates to fall enough to offset the increases we've seen over the past couple of years.”
Many forecasters expect rates to remain well under 7 percent this year. McBride expects them to drop all the way to 5.75 percent by the end of 2024. “Inflation has been coming down — and coming down faster than expected in recent months — which bodes well for mortgage rates,” says McBride.
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The National Association of Realtors expects mortgage rates will average 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024, dropping to 6.6% in the second quarter, according to its latest Quarterly U.S. Economic Forecast. The trade association predicts that rates will continue to fall to 6.1% by the end of the year.
Key Takeaways: For most buyers in 2024, new car deals are more sensible due to lower financing costs and attractive incentives. Used car prices are declining but remain high, affected by the pandemic's long-term impact on production.
Credit the federal government's vehicle import laws, which allow the importation of vehicles that are at least 25 years old "without regard to whether it complies with all applicable Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards." This age is based on the date of manufacturing, meaning that a given car can only be imported ...
Traditionally, new model year vehicles start coming out in the previous year's fall. For example, a 2024 model will typically debut in the fall of 2023 — and dealerships usually want the old stock gone before the new model arrives.
In the spring.
Warmer weather and tax refunds bring buyers out in droves. With so much demand, dealers are far less likely to be in the mood to lower their prices. Plus they still have several months before the new models flood the lots. At the beginning of a new model year (assuming you want next year's model).
Car prices will likely continue to decrease
“Last month, the average price for a new vehicle was [$47,936] — a [1.4%] dip from last year, according to the latest KBB data. This suggests that new car prices might drop in 2024.” One factor that could lead to price drops is an oversupply of new cars.
Buy a car at the end of the year for the best deals, as prices may continue to rise in 2024. December, especially the last week, is the best time to buy a car due to high manufacturer and dealer incentives, as well as extra advertising group incentives.
In addition to certain times of the week or holidays, some months are better to buy or lease new vehicles or purchase used cars than other months. In general, May, October, November and December are the best months to visit the car dealership.
Individual vehicle prices aren't going down, but the average car price is overall. That's because automakers are mixing up vehicle types and trims, according to analysts at AlixPartners. Combined with incentives improving, average transaction prices could fall 7% by 2025.
In 2023 and 2024, it's the reduced supply of used cars that ensures prices will remain elevated. Used car prices rose 36% in 2021, only to fall 7% the year after.
The Electric: In 2050, There May Still Be 1 Billion Combustion Vehicles on the Road. Up to 1 billion combustion vehicles will still be on the road globally three decades from now despite the rapid shift to electric cars.
The number of vehicles on the road that are at least 25 years old is about 14 million. That's up from about 8 million in 2002. Those are vehicles made in 1990 or earlier. Meanwhile, the number of vehicles that are 16 to 24 years old is 44 million.
Most Popular Safety Features In Cars Today
We know these safety features help save lives. As someone who values your life and the life of your passengers, you should probably get a new car every 8-10 years. It's as logical as getting life insurance at around age 30.
How long should you keep a car? A typical car is expected to last 200,000 miles or more, with electric or hybrid vehicles going up to 300,000 miles. If you drive the average number of miles for an American, a typical car should last you about 14 years and an electric car will last about 21 years.
NAR forecasts that sales will rise by 13 percent in 2024. “Housing sales are expected to increase a bit from this year,” agrees Chen Zhao, who leads the economics team at Redfin. “However,” she qualifies, “we are not expecting sales to increase dramatically, as rates are likely to remain above 6 percent.”
The bottom line
Sure, mortgage rates could fall to 3% at some point, but chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon. Moreover, waiting for rates to drop before you buy your home could backfire. Instead, consider buying your house now and refinancing your mortgage when rates improve.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is currently expected to cut interest rates by a little more than 1% over the course of its seven remaining scheduled meetings of 2024. This may leave short-term interest rates at approximately 4% by December 2024, based on market forecasts.