Fannie Mae: Rates Will Average 6.4% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026. The December Housing Forecast from Fannie Mae puts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.6% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2026.
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023 before descending somewhat in 2024. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2025. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Though mortgage rates have fallen from their 8% peaks, the decline has been slow and gradual. Over the past 12 months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 7.5%. Most housing economists had expected mortgage rates to drop to 6% by the end of 2024, moving into the mid-5% range in 2025.
Some economists are projecting three rate cuts this year, including Goldman Sachs, whose economists expect rates to end 2025 in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, down from its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
The short answer is: It's highly unlikely we'll see mortgage rates drop back to 3% anytime soon. However, recent inflation numbers point to cooling of the pace of inflation.
By 2026, the federal funds rate is expected to fall further to 2.9%. Inflation forecasts have also been adjusted upward. Officials now project headline inflation to reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, compared to September's estimate of 2.1%.
and then projects that mortgage interest rates – in particular the 30-year fixed rate, which is closely tied to the federal funds rate and the 10-year Treasury note yield – will remain elevated, and only decline 0.2 percent from 6.5 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2027.
As of January 2025, 5 year fixed rates in the low-mid 4% range are approximately 0.25% lower than variable rates in the mid – high 4% range. Whereas another 0.50% of rate cuts are likely in 2025, as we move into 2025 there is some risk that the cuts don't proceed by the additional 0.50 – 0.75% as currently projected.
Locking in early can help you get what you were budgeting for from the start. As long as you close before your rate lock expires, any increase in rates won't affect you. The ideal time to lock your mortgage rate is when interest rates are at their lowest, but this is hard to predict — even for the experts.
Fannie Mae expects rates to average 6.4% for the year. Wells Fargo projects a slight decline, with rates averaging around 6.3% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts rates will remain above 6% through 2025.
Which bank gives the highest interest rate on FD? As of 2024, Canara Bank offers the highest interest rate of 7.25% for 444 days.
A line chart titled "US federal funds target rate" that tracks the metric over time. The interest rate was lowered 0.25 percentage points in December. U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025.
The bottom line. Predicting exactly when mortgage rates will hit 5% is difficult. It could happen by late 2025, but market conditions could speed up or delay this timeline. "Some consumers feel rates will drop in the next two to four months [but] that may never happen," says Rathbun.
These futures can also be short-term or long-term. Short-term interest rate futures have an underlying instrument with a maturity of less than one year, while long-term interest rate futures have an underlying instrument with a maturity of over one year.
key Takeaways
The recent Federal Reserve rate cuts could mean lower mortgage rates in 2025. More than half of homeowners with mortgages have rates lower than 4%, which means many may hold onto their homes for longer.
The length of your mortgage term affects the balance between stability and flexibility. A 5-year fixed term provides long-term protection from rate fluctuations, offering stability throughout the term.
So far the decline in mortgage costs from November 2023's peak levels has been bumpy. Despite an overall reduction in borrowing costs over the past two years, the 30-year mortgage rate recently moved up from a little above 6% in September 2024 to closer to 7% in January 2025.
The banks also differ when it comes to estimating how many cuts will occur throughout 2025. ANZ is the most conservative and is anticipating two cuts this year, while CBA and Westpac both speculate four will occur. NAB is projecting five rate cuts.
Today's rates seem high compared with the recent 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn.
More homes on the market in 2025 may create better opportunities for buyers. Higher inventory means fewer bidding wars, which may keep home prices more stable. Falling mortgage rates could also ease the cost of buying a home, though it may take time.
Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 3.50 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.
Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.
Mortgage points, also called discount points, lower your interest rate for the life of the mortgage. A lender may allow borrowers to purchase as little as a fraction of a point or up to four points. One mortgage point typically costs 1% of your loan and permanently lowers your interest rate by about 0.25%.